Toncoin Climbs 3% as $420M Investment Filing Sparks Recovery From December Lows
Market Structure Shifts Higher
- TON Crystal up roughly 3% since July 14, testing key resistance levels
- Momentum and trend indicators (RSI, ADX) signal cautious sentiment and downtrend fatigue
- Critical tests at the 20-day EMA ($1.64), $1.80 resistance, and potential upside to $2.16
The native token of TON Labs, TON Crystal (TON) is up roughly 3% since July 14 as the price makes another attempt to break a key level of resistance.
The TON coin moved up 3% this past week to $1.62, setting up a potential technical rebound after an extended end-of-year collapse. AlphaTON Capital disclosed a $420 million stake in the small-cap digital asset, and new money looks to make a snap decision about holding now-oversold positions as we head into the most oversubscribed IPO market in history. The TON coin has shed 46% of its value since peaking in September so most sustainable buyers are out of their longs. Will they be adding to these waning positions, or taking profit at current levels?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | TONCOIN (TON) |
| Current Price | $1.62 |
| Weekly Performance | 3.05% |
| Monthly Performance | -19.36% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 44.3 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 37.5 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.05 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | 41.46 |
Momentum Resets to 44.3 After December’s Oversold Extreme
The Relative Strength Index was created by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the speed and change of price movements, so it’s considered a momentum oscillator. RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Traditionally, and according to Wilder, RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. What is interesting is that RSI hardly moved despite a 3% increase this week, it was 44.3 compared to last week’s 29.9. A low momentum response shows that traders are still quite cautious even with the AlphaTON news. For swing traders, a balanced RSI shows that both long and short setups are still possible. The 50 level will then be the next momentum checkpoint to guide on if a solid trend is starting to develop.
ADX at 37.5 Confirms Mature Downtrend Losing Steam
When we check trend strength, we can see that ADX is a high 37.48, which concluded December’s dominant downtrend that brought TON down 50% from autumn highs. A level above 30 shows strong directionality, and this level is where exhaustion areas were found after TON’s former major selloffs in June and September. The distinction now is that the $420 million ecosystem investment establishes a fundamental floor that wasn’t there during the former technical rebounds. In simple terms, the high ADX indicates that it was not a difficult task to enrich oneself while shorting. Whenever the ADX reaches 35–40, it points to the end of the current trend more than anything else. Hence, day traders need to modify their approach, shifting from trading with the trend to trading against it, since the market is shifting from a directional downtrend to a consolidation. Guess what got filed right at this perfect technical moment? The AlphaTON.
20-Day EMA at $1.64 Becomes First Major Test for Recovery
The 50-day moving average is a reliable equilibrium point; maintaining the rotation above it corresponds to steady bullish momentum. Beyond the 50-day EMA, two more key levels loom overhead: the monthly pivot at $1.744 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.822. Both have seen tons of reaction in both directions since bottoming, with the monthly pivot already teasing early January highs. The 20-day EMA stands out because it is in the same vicinity as the psychological $1.64 level, which acted as a foothold of support in early December. After the December 18 breakdown, this level of support turned into a ceiling of resistance, which makes it a crucial flip zone to recover for bulls. If TON can close well above $1.64, this will be the first time price has traded above a significant moving average since the peak in November and will likely serve to activate sidelined trend following buyers out of the market.
Resistance Stacks Between $1.80 and $2.15 as Bulls Face Uphill Battle
Sellers have taken control and will ultimately determine if the bulls can muster enough demand to reclaim those lost levels. If sellers choose to defend the resistance overhead, which is the more likely scenario following a panic selloff as witnessed last month, we could see continued downside pressure. The $1.39 low from January’s current decade-to-date low represents the immediate level to watch below which would likely signal another leg down of the ongoing bear market.
Bulls have a much better position here after this week’s save off of $1.44. The $1.56 zone that saw the first relief bounce also now serves as the first level of defense, holding from the early days of December’s trading range. Under that, the bulls must do everything to keep the $1.44 zone from breaking as that’s where the knife was caught on December 20th. A breach here and the 2024 lows near $1.24 will most likely return to the table. The market structure, therefore, implies that the better strategy is to allow a pullback to $1.55–$1.58 levels to gauge the follow-through response of any retest of the initial breakout level. The “buying the dip” strategy doesn’t mean waiting for a 20% waterfall decline back to $1.20. It just means not chasing but waiting for inevitable cooling off given that the TON rally is +70% off the lows in three sessions.
Bulls Require Decisive Close Above $1.64 to Confirm Reversal
If price reclaims and sustains above the 20-day EMA at $1.64, the first hurdle for the bulls is likely to be $1.80. This level may act as a stiff resistance because it is close to the breakdown level from mid-December. However, the current consolidation near the overhead resistance is a positive sign as it shows that traders are not closing their positions in a hurry. The AlphaTON ecosystem expansion is the underlying bullish theme for this setup. The comeback in the broader market will further aid the northward march. If the top 10 tokens break out of their overhead resistance, the subsequent altcoin rally is likely to pull LEO above $1.80. A strong weekly close above $1.80 will turn the short-term trend from bearish to neutral. Above this level, the relief rally may reach the 200-day EMA at $2.16.
If the newly created low holds, the lean support between $1.36 and $1.44 could set a trap for fresh TON longs and allow the alpha sellers to reload for another assault on the $1.64 resistance. Should that level fall after a hackneyed knee-jerk reaction to the AlphaTON partnership, the final support at $1.76 needs to hold to preserve the uptrend. A smackdown off $1.76 would retest the critical high low at $1.64 and target new lows at $1.52 and $1.44 if it fails to stop the bleeding. Considering the neutral RSI, exhausted ADX, and vicinity to key EMA resistance, the most likely short-term scenario involves TON ranging from $1.56–$1.64 as investors absorb the financing announcement. This consolidation phase would give the moving averages time to catch up and the oscillators time to cool off before the next trend-setting cross, with the AlphaTON capital infusion schedule probably dictating how that eventual breakout unfolds.
