SUI Tests Critical Support at $1.51 as Stablecoin Inflows Surge Past $2.4B
Market Pulse
- SUI has decreased by 40% from its local top, but it seems to have found a bottom.
- It’s the same price level at $1.51 that has been holding since the end of Q4 2024.
- Despite the stable price performance, RWA on-chain pegged stablecoins inflows set an all-time high of over $2.4 billion, telling us that there is a firm accumulation happening beneath the surface.
SUI has fallen 40.5% from its monthly peak of $2.72, now at $1.51 following a brutal downturn that wiped out three months of increases over the course of just four weeks.
This extreme turnaround has taken place even as record stablecoin inflows topping $2.4 billion made Sui the most liquid project versus Aptos and Ethereum. The primary question for investors is whether elevated stablecoin demand and RWA item releases will be enough to cushion the downside or if this accumulation is simply forestalling an overdue pullback?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | SUI (SUI) |
| Current Price | $1.51 |
| Weekly Performance | -6.58% |
| Monthly Performance | -40.46% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 33.5 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 59.5 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.25 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -67.10 |
RSI at 33.46 Approaches Oversold Territory Last Seen in August
The Relative Strength Index is currently at 33.46 on the daily timeframe, and it is quickly approaching the oversold zone below 30, which has generally coincided with important lows for SolarEdge stock. We saw a similar momentum exhaustion at the end of last month, and shortly after that, the shares of SolarEdge Technologies launched an almost 180% rally over the following two months. However, back then the entire market was in rebound mode and the current situation is not the same.
What is interesting to note is that RSI hardly moved even after the influx of $2.4 billion worth of stablecoins, indicating that institutional inflows are catching falling knives rather than running with the price action. For swing traders, the dissonance between on-chain and price action sets up an interesting play in the sense that the bounces can be sharp but premature ones if the sustained buying does not continue through $1.75.
ADX Climbs to 59.47 – Extreme Trend Strength Nears Exhaustion
When trend strength is considered, the ADX reading of 59.47 indicates one of the most powerful directional moves over the timeframe of SUI’s trading history. Such levels pose a precarious advantage, with selling pressure confirming conviction in the bears while pushing so high that it approaches a historically unsustainable level where corrections tend to stall or reverse.
In essence, whenever ADX has pushed above 50.00 markets have seldom sustained such extreme readings for extended timeframes – the previous instance being in late March 2024 and following a three-week consolidation, price was already beginning to trend lower. Therefore, day traders be warned, the risk increases considerably until this ultra-trendy environment washes itself out and whipsaws are likely as the market adjusts to the launch of R25 RWA tokens and what that means for Sui ecosystem value.
20-Day EMA at $1.73 Becomes First Major Resistance After Support Flip
The 50-day at $1.83 has also emerged as a term level to keep in mind as former support during the uptrend. The share price will also need to overcome some significant psychological round number barrier levels at $2 and $2.50 if it can engineer a revival.
Even more significant was the 200-day EMA drop that took place in May 2019; this level change from support to resistance has played a direct role in price action over the past six months. It isn’t advisable to make any large bullish bets until this longer-term value is recovered. This article was originally published by Investopedia.
Support Clusters Between $1.41 and $1.51 as Monthly Pivots Align
Bulls are trying to hold the line at a key support zone around $1.41-$1.51, home to the monthly S1 pivot, psychological round levels, and previous accumulation zones from Q4 2024. This zone has absorbed three separate tests of it thus far this week, with each test bar producing solid volume levels which could be a sign of institutional buying amidst the bearish price action.
There are strong resistance levels above the current price range. Starting at $1.73 (20-day EMA), through $2.19 (50-day EMA), and reaching the monthly pivot at $2.43 there is strong resistance to further price increase. This means that the price would have to systematically reach certain levels where sellers will begin to sell their holdings. This will not be an easy process, even if there is good news, such as the integration of the RWA token.
The $720 million market cap is nearly double that of its nearest competitor, reflecting just how much potential is priced into Sushiswap given it still occupies 10% of Sushi’s fully diluted value. Market structure reveals an interesting dynamic where massive stablecoin inflows meet technical breakdown – the $2.4 billion surge positions Sui ahead of major competitors in liquidity metrics, yet price continues making lower highs and lower lows. This disconnect between fundamental flows and technical structure creates a unique scenario where patient accumulators may be positioning for a longer-term reversal while short-term traders respect the dominant downtrend.
Bulls Need Decisive Close Above $1.73 to Shift Momentum
If the price reclaims the 20-day EMA at $1.73, bulls will try to push it to $1.96 and then to the 50-day SMA at $2.19. If this level is also crossed, the relief rally could reach the downtrend line. If no risk market turns bearish, the $1.51 support could crumble.
If an increase in volume accompanies a move below $1.41, risk-aware investors should take a breakeven or partial loss, anticipating a test of the $1.28 support low for another exit or a partial re-add. The next target to the downside would be in range of $1.15.
Considering the extreme ADX reading and oversold RSI that is close to historical bounce zones, it is likely that in the near term SUI will consolidate somewhere between $1.41 and $1.73 as the market absorbs the technical damage and the news of potentially becoming a major RWA platform via R25’s token offerings.
