Ondo Crashes 52% From Peak as European Expansion News Fails to Halt Slide
Market Pulse
- ONDO fell as low as $0.467 in early New York trading on Sept. 14, adding to a 20% overnight slump and putting the token on course for a 60% weekly loss.
- Encouraging news regarding the European launch of tokenized exchange-traded stocks has struggled to offset widespread concerns among ONT’s tokenized shareholders surrounding Tether and Bitfinex.
- The token exhibits oversold measures in the Relative Strength Index after a six-month downward trend.
Ondo’s price decline intensified this week with the token losing 24% while having obtained key regulatory nods throughout Europe. The altcoin is now priced at $0.467, 52% down from its 2022 high, and the surge of European interest failed to stop the bleeding for the sixth consecutive month. The question on everyone’s lips is – has ONDO potentially bottomed out post this brutal capitulation, or will the fundamentals be overshadowed by continued liquidation?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | ONDO (ONDO) |
| Current Price | $0.47 |
| Weekly Performance | -23.94% |
| Monthly Performance | -35.52% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 26.7 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 47.7 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.06 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -168.41 |
RSI at 26.7 Signals Deep Oversold Territory – Matches June Capitulation
The oscillator is currently reading 26.7 on the daily timeframe, illustrating classic oversold conditions which have tended to mark major bottoms in ONDO. The last time this extreme reading appeared was during June’s washout, which was followed by a 40% relief rally in just three weeks. Momentum exhaustion is even more significant when looking at longer timeframes, with the weekly RSI tumbling to 31.9 and the monthly RSI collapsing to an extreme reading of 49.6.
What is interesting to note, however, is that RSI remained deep in oversold territory during the timing of the two European approval announcements indicating that performance has been weak for reasons disconnected from actual news-flow. For traders able to withstand significant paper loss for a period in the hope of realizing a substantial return-the deeply oversold RSI combined with two major fundamental catalysts has created a ‘spring-loading’ situation whereby any shift in sentiment can lead to a bullish RSI-percentage reversal-would result in a powerful performance as shorts are forced to cover and sidelined buyers return to chase performance.
ADX Climbs to 47.7 – Extreme Trend Strength Behind the Collapse
The ADX reading of 47.7 suggests that the downtrend is one of the most powerful downward trends in the history of ONDO. ADX readings above 40 suggest that one side is straight in control in this case, it’s the seller with extreme ease. The +DI is currently at 7.8, and the -DI is at 35.5, as already mentioned, the bulls are purely not present and the bears are destroying them.
In simple terms, an ADX this high indicates that the trend has been a long and powerful one, and that a turning point is increasingly likely. However, as the -DI is currently far above the +DI, sellers will need loads of volume to push the price any lower. This will likely come in the form of stronger short pressure than has been seen so far and a vague, poorly understood negative news item that connects the market to the real world.
Monthly Pivot at $0.631 Now Acts as Distant Resistance
Looking lower, there’s very little stopping ONDO from reclaiming its September 29 trough around $0.40. Though the 200-day EMA at $0.389 may stall a decline, a daily close under here could usher in steeper losses. The bargain typical near the 2020 commencement of upswing at $0.313 might interfere in conjunction with the crossbar base circa $0.30, enforced in June 2019.
An important indication is the consolidation of the 50-day ($0.632) and 100-day ($0.691) EMAs that, in the past, has anticipated relevant oscillations. Not even the approval of the tokenized European stocks managed to bring the price back for a test of the 10-day EMA, highlighting the technical weakness of this chart. The bulls’ first step is to reconquer the $0.632 area and manage to stay above it.
Resistance Wall Between $0.547 and $0.698 Caps Any Recovery
Sellers have placed stronger resistance above the prevailing price, the resistance levels are strong fundamentals as well as psychological levels. The initial one is at $0.547 (10-day EMA). Any recovery is likely to face resistance in the zone of $0.594 to $0.632, where both the 20-day EMA and the 50-day EMA are located. This is also where the monthly pivot point is situated.
Bulls are trying to defend what little support is left at the psychological $0.45 level, which has been tested six times in the past week alone. Below that, the monthly S1 pivot at $0.383 is the next major support, with June’s low near $0.35 as the ultimate line in the sand. The 500 million potential investors gaining access to US markets through Ondo’s platform offers solid fundamental support, but price must first respect these technical levels.
The market structure is showing that bears are in the driving seat, as any bounce is quickly met with more selling pressure. Even the significant European regulatory wins didn’t have much impact on the price charts. When such a situation arises, and positive fundamentals fail to reflect on the price action, it usually resolves in one of two manners. The first being complete capitulation resulting in a final flush, or the second being an oversold bounce back.
Bulls Need Reclaim of $0.547 to Shift Momentum
If the price can rise to $0.632 it would further support a move into the $0.80 region. This level should apply considerable technical resistance. Reclaims of notable higher time frame support currently at $0.40 and $0.52 should continue to be the focus. It’s likely that short-term supply will want to test the $0.63 – $0.72 pockets.
If the price encountered a fresh buying interest, a retest of $0.45 would follow. Trumping that barrier, the $0.48 inflection point from October could then come into the spotlight alongside the 50-day moving average ($0.499). Alternatively, the aforementioned support needs to hold to have another go at $0.45. Pushing beneath it, the fears of a return to early 2000-highs will likely increase.
Considering the deeply oversold status, milestone regulatory green lights, and six-month cleanser, the most likely immediate result is a relief rally into $0.547-0.5940.594. The main question: Can positive European growth news for once spur steady inflows?
