NEAR Protocol Tests December Lows as Momentum Exhausts Below $2
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- NEAR’s current value is $1.93, showing a 46% decrease from its highest level in December.
- Intents platform volume has exceeded $5 billion despite declining price.
- RSI at 37.3 indicates that conditions are oversold.
The recently broke with 50% from months long low, which eventually triggered the latest corrective phase that’s unraveling half of the year-to-date rally. The margin between spot and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has been developing into a resistance band since the 20 SMA converged and crossed below the longer-term measure in early October, providing a reference point for bears to lean against at $2.27. A rebound currently faces dynamic resistance from the 20 SMA, which is at $2.05, as well as from the 50 SMA, which is at $2.23.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | NEAR PROTOCOL (NEAR) |
| Current Price | $1.93 |
| Weekly Performance | -21.15% |
| Monthly Performance | -13.50% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 37.6 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 21.4 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.06 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -101.89 |
RSI Drops to 37.3 – First Oversold Territory Since October’s Washout
The oscillator is at 37.28 on the daily timeframe indicating that NEAR is approaching oversold levels for the first time since the broader market flush in October. This level tends to mark regions where selling is exhausted — such RSI setups in October led to a 45% relief rally in two weeks. The NLS at 52.6 on the weekly timeframe shows that the longer time frame is not near oversold levels, and therefore may well see higher time frame sellers push back any oversold rally.
For swing traders, an oversold daily RSI presents a short-term counter-trend trade, but a neutral weekly RSI suggests caution in anticipation of a sustained rally. The $5 billion Intents milestone gives a solid support for a relief rally, but ultimately, price action will determine if the bulls are returning.
ADX at 21.4 Signals Weak Trend as Sellers Lose Steam
The ADX reading at 21.38 confirms that the downtrend is losing directional force, and all the while, NEAR is hitting new monthly lows. This is a reading that represents a trending environment giving way to more neutral, choppy conditions, with neither the bulls or the bears having solid authority. The transition from above 30 ADX readings in early December to current levels reflects not seller exhaustion but lack of demand for cash.
In simpler terms, the ADX suggests that we’re moving from strong downward movement to a phase of consolidation with the possibility that strategies that take advantage of price oscillation could be more profitable than those that follow the trend. This means that day traders will have to adapt, concentrating on support and resistance instead of momentum but the right spark could easily shake things up.
20-Day EMA at $2.32 Becomes First Major Resistance After Support Failure
The 10-day EMA trading under the 50-Day EMA since 2 October has resulted in the market becoming oversold on the daily relative strength index (RSI). If price doesn’t start consolidating, the moving averages will continue to widen and cause a surge of downside momentum across the market. The daily moving average convergence divergence – a trend-following momentum plus volume indicator – also gained traction within the bearish region.
If INT can push through the resistance, the 100-day EMA currently at $2.49 should act as a resistance-turned-support level in case of a re-test. That would provide a less arduous path higher to the 200-day EMA at $2.68, precursor to a full re-entry in the supportive danger zone.
Support at $1.73 Tested Three Times – Bulls’ Final Defense Line
There is significant resistance between the monthly pivot at $2.24 and December’s breakdown point at $2.57, with many confluences. Immediate resistance is at $2.00 as weekly pivots and psychological, round numbers often act as resistance. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) was also a consistent level of resistance during December.
Bullish investors are protecting an important area of support between $1.73 (monthly S1) and $1.80 (the price at three monthly bottoms) – which has cushioned falling prices three times since November. This level is the 45% all-time recovery zone of October’s highs and hosts former ceilings that are solidifying into potential floors. If those levels give way, then the month-end S2 of $1.26 stands out, with price cutting over a third.
The market structure still needs to mend before support can be sustainable. The first sign has come to us from buyers roughly making their last stand around $1.73. Volume profiles indicate that this is a level where institutional interest was shown in the past. Also, the Intents ecosystem with an impressive $5 bn volume processed through it, gives us the perfect reasoning to believe in the edge holding. However, like always, technical damage needs to first be repaired before any kind of recovery can be attempted. Moreover, the most recent ETF filing from WisdomTree on the top 20 digital assets could act as support number two if we continue to maintain our market cap ranking.
Bulls Need Decisive Close Above $2.32 to Reverse Bearish Structure
If price reclaims the 20-day EMA at $2.32 with conviction, the 50-day EMA at $2.40 would be the next target, with the Intents platform’s momentum fundamentals acting as a tailwind for continuation. The falling wedge pattern that could be recognized by some analysts will be triggered on a volume breakout above $2.00, which will target the $2.90 level as a measured move.
If the support at $1.73 fails and the price continues to drop, it could activate more bearish signals and lead to a further decline of the price, catching those who recently bought the dip off guard. This would likely trigger more automatic sales once the price approaches the monthly S2 level of $1.26. Since the positive Intents metrics don’t reflect on the price, fundamental buyers giving up may push the price even lower as they sell their positions.
Based on the oversold daily conditions, weakening ADX, and triple-tested support at $1.73, the largest probability near-term outcome is NEAR consolidates between $1.73-$2.00 as it digests the recent decline. The Intents platform over $5 billion in volume serves as a fundamental floor, but technical repair takes time to braid any sustainable uptrend.
