Monero Surges 66% in Three Months as Privacy Coins Stage Comeback Despite EU Regulatory Clouds
Market Pulse
- Monero broke through the $400 resistance level and defended the $280 region as support six times since the start of August.
- ADX climbed over 35, indicating a strong trend formation for the first time since the spring rally.
- The urgency to buy before the potential 2027 privacy coin ban in the EU could add fuel to the fire.
Monero’s relentless upward trend remains intact as the privacy-focused cryptocurrency tacked on another 25.76% over the last month, building on a three-month gain of 66.4% for a five-fold return since April. Now perched at lofty levels not seen in over three years, technical resistance between $422-$478 will test whether this rising tide can lift struggling altcoins into bull markets. It’s been an emphatic move from a token with no utility beyond secrecy, potentially one of many late-cycle surprises evidence from which altcoins have potential and which don’t. What worked in the last cycle – XMR is a top-100 market cap does not appear to be working yet, so alts outside of the first 10 or 20 names have been struggling.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | MONERO (XMR) |
| Current Price | $392.34 |
| Weekly Performance | 8.46% |
| Monthly Performance | 25.76% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 61.7 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 35.7 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | 18.40 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | 94.70 |
Momentum Holds Mid-Range at 61.69 – Neither Stretched nor Exhausted
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Traditionally and according to Wilder, RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. It currently sits at 61.69 on the daily timeframe, indicative of a market that is trending higher without hitting overbought extremes. This neutral reading implies the uptrend has further legs, especially in contrast to the blow-off top witnessed in March that witnessed RSI spike above 80 before the ensuing pullback. What’s also interesting is that while the uptrend lost out in the battle of the 50-day SMA rejection during the first week of January, RSI remained above 50 and in the bullish control zone. This is a divergent rally, one that hasn’t run too hot too fast and suggests the momentum is firmly in favor of the bulls.
The EU situation is a binary catalyst – you’re going to know within a few weeks whether Monero’s banking exposure becomes much more limited or whether this was just another regulatory flash in the privacy coin pan. If you believe Monero remains available en masse to EU institutional investors as a legitimate financial product, then it’s easy to buy any dip here. If you believe the European political class has finally assembled a twitch pitchforks banishment approach to privacy coins, then you’re probably selling any strength.
ADX at 35.67 Confirms Trend Followers Should Stay Long
With a look at trend strength metrics, the ADX reading of 35.67 is in trend territory and suggests that we are in a trending market where momentum strategies work better than mean reversion strategies. Put in plain English, the market is in charge and the market is going higher… for the time being at least.
Ever since ADX pierced the 25 line in early December, Monero has increased in price by nearly $100 thereby confirming the effectiveness of a trend-following approach. As a rule of thumb, readings above 30 are usually associated with the strongest part of a price move, while readings above 40 are seen as exhaustion points. Therefore, day traders will need to adjust this approach: fade those exhaustion points when ADX starts printing 40+ values, but simply play along with the trend while it remains inside this 30-40 range. The 2027 phase-out deadline announced by the EU seems to have shifted the accumulation gears and transformed what would have potentially been a grift grind higher into an immediate uptrend.
20-Day EMA at $362 Becomes Critical Support After December Flip
The RSI is horizontal at a very high reading, indicating that overbought conditions may be reached soon. However, Monero could remain overbought for extended periods during strong uptrends, as was the case in the previous two months.
What is most interesting is the way in which the 20-day EMA turned resistance turned support after December’s breakout from $350.00. This level denied higher levels three times in November before giving in as buyers likely rushed to “buy before the ban” amid privacy concerns. The 50-day EMA at $337.00 is now the key level preventing losses and the 100-day at $319.00 will ensure the uptrend remains intact.
Resistance Stacks Between $440 and $500 as Bulls Eye Breakout
Sellers have reestablished the $440-$478 as a strong resistance area. This zone is defined by December’s high that last coincided with the monthly R1 pivot at $441. The monthly R2 pivot is at $504. The confluence of this resistance cluster draws more attention after noting this level was tested three times over a week in late December but never breached. Each test saw heavier-than-average selling volume as well. The $500 figure is just above and represents a 27.5% rally from spot levels.
Bulls are now defending the $370-$390 support zone more strongly as they realize that the uptrend structure will be maintained as long as the price remains above the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA, which is closely followed by the $337 level, will serve as the next crucial support. Notably, the sixth consecutive bounce off the $280-$300 zone between August and November served as the launchpad for the ongoing rally.
The market structure shows a daily chart with an ascending triangle pattern. The higher lows at $280, $300, and $337 are currently meeting the healthy horizontal resistance of $440. This classical continuation pattern breaks to the upside 70% of the time with a measured move to $520 based on the pattern height. An unusual fundamental catalyst to this technical setup is the EU regulatory timeline. The urgency surrounding this date could force the pattern to resolve sooner rather than later.
Bulls Require Daily Close Above $440 to Unlock $500 Target
You could expect a typical pullback, likely towards the 20-day EMA, which hasn’t been tested as support since early December. Bears will hope that any rollover will result from Monero running into its hard fork on April 30. This event schedule should ensure that the path of Monero resumption is a crowded but fairly easy gradient.
If selling intensified to close a daily session beneath $319, there’s no immediate support until $280 – an unjustified 20% plummet. Short sellers would lose profits en masse upon any close above $337 while the higher we bounce the more stops will be placed above the $430 zone.
Based on the technical setup and the sense of regulatory imperatives driving aggregation, the most likely short-term outcome is for Monero to consolidate in the $380-$420 area before making another attempt at the $440 level. With positive momentum indicators, a trending ADX and the ‘now or never’ thesis related to 2027 and privacy coins, any dip should be seen as a buying opportunity by those looking for an entry-level to ride the next wave to the upside.
