Kaspa Tests Critical Support as Whales Accumulate Despite 13% Weekly Drop
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- KAS dropped 13.11% this week to $0.0447, testing multi-month support levels
- Whale accumulation intensifies with $35M in buying after major Bitcoin miner adoption
- DAGKnight consensus upgrade looms as potential catalyst for reversal
Kaspa’s price action tells a tale of two markets – retail sellers dumping into whale buyers’ hands as KAS shed 13.11% over the past week to trade at $0.0447. The devastating drop from monthly highs near $0.063 erased roughly $0.018 in value, yet institutional players accumulated quietly during the selloff, with reports confirming $35M in whale buying after the largest Bitcoin miner added the token to their operations. The main question for traders is: will this heavy support zone around $0.044-$0.045 hold as smart money bets on the upcoming DAGKnight consensus upgrade?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | KASPA (KAS) |
| Current Price | $0.04 |
| Weekly Performance | -13.11% |
| Monthly Performance | 0.52% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 39.1 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 21.9 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | 0.00 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -135.38 |
RSI at 39.11 Signals First Oversold Touch Since October’s Accumulation Phase
RSI sits at 39.11 on the daily timeframe, marking the first genuine oversold reading in nearly three months. This level historically triggered relief bounces for KAS, with October’s similar configuration preceding a 40% surge once selling exhaustion kicked in. The oscillator’s descent from neutral territory above 50 just two weeks ago reflects how quickly sentiment shifted – though crucially, it hasn’t yet pierced the extreme oversold zone below 30 that would signal full capitulation.
What’s revealing is how RSI behaved during the recent whale accumulation phase. Despite the 13% price drop, momentum indicators never reached panic levels, suggesting institutional buyers absorbed the selling pressure methodically. So for swing traders, this balanced oversold condition at 39.11 means the rubber band is stretched but not snapped – creating a high-probability bounce setup if the $0.044 support holds through the weekend.
ADX at 21.88 Keeps Directional Traders on Sidelines While Range Players Feast
Looking at trend strength, the ADX reads 21.88, hovering in that awkward zone between ranging and trending markets. Basically, we’re seeing enough directional movement to frustrate choppers but insufficient conviction to reward trend followers. The indicator climbed from the mid-teens during December’s consolidation, yet it refuses to break above 25 – the level where genuine trends typically accelerate.
To clarify, this sub-25 ADX reading suggests KAS remains trapped in a broader consolidation phase despite this week’s sharp drop. The selloff represents more of a range expansion than a true breakdown, especially with whales stepping in to defend key levels. Therefore, day traders should focus on mean reversion strategies between $0.044 support and $0.052 resistance until ADX confirms a directional breakout above 25 or collapses back below 20.
20-Day EMA at $0.049 Becomes First Resistance After Supporting Price Since November
Price action through the EMA ribbons paints a clear picture of structural damage. KAS now trades below the entire stack – the 10-day ($0.0478), 20-day ($0.0492), and crucially, the 50-day EMA at $0.0498. This complete bearish alignment hasn’t occurred since the October lows, marking a significant shift in market structure. The 20-day EMA particularly stands out, having flipped from reliable support to immediate resistance after three failed reclaim attempts this week.
More telling is the compression between the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, now separated by less than $0.001. This tight clustering around $0.049-$0.050 creates a formidable resistance band that bulls must convincingly reclaim to signal any meaningful recovery. The upcoming DAGKnight upgrade could provide the catalyst for such a move, but until then, that former support zone at $0.049 transforms into the first major hurdle for any relief bounce.
Support at $0.044 Tested Three Times as Whales Defend Multi-Month Floor
Resistance stacks heavy between $0.0479 (10-day EMA) and the psychological $0.050 level where the 20-day and 50-day EMAs converge. Above that, the monthly pivot at $0.0521 marks the next significant barrier, coinciding with the zone where December’s rally stalled. Any sustained move above $0.052 would target the 100-day EMA near $0.0593 – roughly 33% above current levels.
Bulls defend multiple support layers with remarkable persistence. The immediate floor at $0.0447 absorbed three tests this week without breaking, backed by reported whale accumulation of $35M. Below that, the monthly S1 pivot at $0.0411 provides secondary support, with the psychological $0.040 level serving as the final defense before October’s lows near $0.036 come into play.
This configuration resembles a compressed spring, with narrowing ranges despite high volatility. The structure signals buyers’ conviction as long as they keep $0.044 intact on any retracement. It is worth mentioning that similar compression patterns in KAS historically resolved with 20-30% directional moves once the range breaks – making the current setup particularly compelling for patient traders.
Bulls Need Decisive Close Above $0.050 to Confirm Reversal Ahead of DAGKnight
Should price reclaim the $0.050 psychological level with conviction, bulls would target $0.0521 initially, then $0.0593 at the 100-day EMA. The DAGKnight consensus upgrade provides fundamental backing for such a recovery, especially with major miners already positioning ahead of the network improvements.
The bearish scenario triggers if $0.0447 support fails on volume, opening an air pocket down to $0.0411. Loss of the $0.044 level would likely flush leveraged longs and could cascade toward the $0.040 psychological floor – potentially shaking out weak hands before the upgrade catalyst arrives.
Given the technical damage but strong whale support, the most likely near-term path sees KAS consolidating between $0.044-$0.050 while the market digests this week’s volatility. The combination of oversold conditions, institutional accumulation, and an approaching network upgrade suggests patience will be rewarded for those who can stomach the current chop.
