HYPE Tests Critical Support at $37.73 as Whale Profits and Wallet Integrations Collide
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- HYPE struggles at $37.73, down 6.68% over 3 months despite recent wallet integrations
- Momentum indicators flash oversold warnings while ADX signals weak trend conviction
- Support at $33.88 emerges as make-or-break level for bulls defending the yearly 1409% gain
Hyperliquid’s price action tells a story of exhaustion meeting opportunity, with HYPE trading at $37.73 after shedding 1.67% over the past week. The cryptocurrency’s remarkable yearly performance of 1409.2% now faces its first serious test, as the recent Phantom and SafePal wallet integrations clash with profit-taking pressure from whale traders who netted $24M on recent shorts. The main question for traders is: can the expanding ecosystem features offset the technical weakness building across multiple timeframes?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | HYPERLIQUID (HYPE) |
| Current Price | $37.73 |
| Weekly Performance | -1.67% |
| Monthly Performance | -0.58% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 42.7 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 21.7 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -1.05 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -68.93 |
RSI at 42.67 Signals First Oversold Territory Since Growth Mode Launch
Reading the oscillator at 42.67, traders see momentum approaching levels that historically marked local bottoms for HYPE. This marks the first time since the HIP-3 Growth Mode announcement that the daily RSI has ventured below the neutral 50 line, suggesting the reconfigured fee structure hasn’t yet translated into sustained buying pressure. The weekly RSI paints an even more cautious picture at 47.03, confirming that momentum exhaustion extends beyond just short-term profit-taking.
What’s revealing is how RSI behaved during the wallet integration announcements – barely budging from oversold zones despite fundamentally bullish news. Similar momentum configurations in other high-flyers preceded either violent snapback rallies or deeper capitulation phases. So for swing traders, this balanced-yet-weak RSI configuration means waiting for either a divergence signal or a clean break above 50 before committing capital, especially with whales demonstrating their willingness to short into strength.
ADX at 21.70 Keeps Choppy Conditions in Play Despite Integration Catalysts
At the level of 21.70, the ADX entry indicates that despite the headline-grabbing whale trades and platform expansions, HYPE lacks the trending conviction needed for sustained directional moves. Basically, being in this zone means neither bulls defending yearly gains nor bears pressing shorts have established dominance. The reading suggests we’re transitioning from the explosive trending phase that delivered those 1409% returns into a consolidation period where range traders might find better risk-reward setups than trend followers.
To clarify, the ADX is indicating that even the HIP-3 Growth Mode’s fee restructuring and major wallet integrations haven’t sparked the trending conditions typically associated with ecosystem expansion phases. Therefore, day traders should adapt their strategies to this range-bound reality, targeting the edges of the developing $33.88-$42.10 range rather than expecting immediate continuation of the yearly uptrend. The lack of directional conviction despite positive fundamental developments hints that the market needs time to digest HYPE’s meteoric rise.
Price Trapped Below EMA Resistance as Integration News Fails to Spark Breakout
Looking at the moving average structure reveals why the Phantom and SafePal integrations haven’t translated into price appreciation yet. HYPE trades below the crucial 10-day EMA at $38.88, with the 20-day EMA at $39.83 adding another layer of dynamic resistance. More concerning for bulls, the 50-day EMA at $41.46 looms overhead, marking where the recent growth mode announcement initially failed to sustain momentum.
The compression between current price ($37.73) and the 100-day EMA at $39.75 creates a decision zone that will likely determine HYPE’s trajectory into 2025. That former support area around the 20-day EMA now transforms into a red line that bulls must reclaim to signal the wallet integration benefits are attracting new capital rather than just providing exit liquidity for early adopters. Without a convincing close above $39.83, the technical picture suggests more downside probing despite the expanding ecosystem narrative.
$33.88 Support Holds Key as Whale Activity Intensifies Near Range Boundaries
Resistance stacks heavy between $38.77 and $42.10, where the monthly pivot meets the confluence of multiple EMAs. The immediate ceiling sits at $39.20, coinciding with both the 20-day EMA and psychological round number resistance. Above that, sellers have positioned at the weekly pivot of $39.75, creating a gauntlet of supply that requires significant volume to overcome – volume that wallet integrations alone haven’t yet delivered.
Bulls defend multiple support layers, with the most critical being the monthly S1 at $33.88. This level gains extra significance as it represents a 10% cushion above the monthly low of $31.43, suggesting accumulation activity despite the headline-grabbing $24M whale short. The weekly S1 at $38.42 offers nearer-term support, but its proximity to current price makes it more of a speed bump than a solid floor.
The structure of the market signals that whale traders are actively hunting liquidity at range extremes, as evidenced by the recent profitable short position. This configuration resembles a compressed spring where the HIP-3 Growth Mode benefits and wallet integrations provide fundamental fuel, but technical resistance caps immediate upside. The setup favors patient accumulation near $33.88 rather than chasing momentum that clearly isn’t present yet.
Bulls Need Decisive Close Above $39.83 to Activate Integration Rally
Should price reclaim the 20-day EMA at $39.83 with conviction, bulls could target the $42.10 resistance where December’s enthusiasm peaked. The wallet integration narrative provides the fundamental catalyst, but only a high-volume breakout above the EMA cluster would confirm that new users are actually entering rather than just existing holders redistributing through new channels.
The bearish scenario triggers if HYPE loses $33.88 support on volume, which would trap recent integration buyers and likely cascade toward the psychological $30 level. Given the whale’s demonstrated ability to profit from shorts and the failure of positive news to spark immediate buying, a breakdown below monthly S1 would signal that even expanded accessibility can’t offset profit-taking pressure from early investors sitting on 1400%+ gains.
Taking into account the weak ADX, oversold-but-not-extreme RSI, and price rejection at moving averages despite ecosystem expansion, the most probable near-term path sees HYPE grinding between $33.88 and $39.83 while the market digests whether wallet integrations translate into actual usage growth beyond the initial announcement pump.
