HBAR Tests December Lows as Georgia Partnership Fails to Halt 17% Monthly Slide
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- The current trading price of HBAR is $0.139, down 17.3% during the month despite news of real estate tokenization registries going live.
- On-chain applications within the country of Georgia would use the HBAR network for such functions.
- Nonetheless, the news didn’t prevent price from breaking below the psychological support of $0.15.
The price performance of HBAR this week is pretty depressing; not even groundbreaking news could halt the decline. In fact, the token shed 5.2% over seven days to $0.139, and has seen a monthly loss of 17.3%. The announcement that the Republic of Georgia’s Ministry of Justice will port their entire national real estate registry onto the Hedera network failed to break through the 20-day EMA ($0.147) marking year-to-date highs. Additionally, the daily candle following the news was an aggressive long upper-wick doji – very bearish price action, signaling price was rejected at the exponential moving average and topside levels. It’s reasonable to assume this was institutional traders front running the news and unloading long positions. For aggressive short-term traders, this is the setup to watch. The partnership pump has now solidified short-term resistance, which means the EMA and psychological $0.14 level should be shorted hard if it revisits the area. Suppose the $0.13 level fails to hold. In that case, a loss of associated support will trigger a deeper flush toward December’s $0.122 lows.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | HEDERA (HBAR) |
| Current Price | $0.14 |
| Weekly Performance | -5.19% |
| Monthly Performance | -17.34% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 41.8 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 19.6 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.01 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -55.32 |
RSI at 41.77 Signals Momentum Drain Without Full Capitulation
With the RSI now at 41.77, momentum has waned significantly but the indicator hasn’t reached the oversold levels that usually signal bottoms. This “no man’s land” reading frequently paves the way for further downside – similar setups in late October led HBAR’s retreat from $0.08 to $0.05. The weekly RSI stands at a more dismal 37.77 and underscores that the intermediate trend is solidly to the downside, despite the Georgia partnership news.
Therefore, for swing traders, this balanced-but-weak RSI implies that it is too early to try catching knives here. Past examples indicate that one should either wait for a flush below 30 (capitulation) or a reclaim above 50 (trend change) before making directional bets. The very real, fundamentally good news wasn’t even able to push RSI above 45, which speaks volumes about the underlying distribution.
ADX at 19.6 Keeps Choppy Conditions in Play
With an ADX of 19.6, the entry signals that we are in classic range-bound conditions with bulls and bears roughly even. In this zone, breakouts in either direction tend to fail due to lack of follow-through, which is precisely what we saw when the Georgia news momentarily pushed the price to $0.15 only for sellers to push it back down. Momentum plays and trend followers are usually disappointed in this low-trending environment.
In simpler terms, the ADX suggests that we are not in a trending phase but in a consolidating phase, so it’s not surprising that our support and resistance continually get tested. Therefore, day trading longs need to be in and out with a quick $0.13-$0.15 scalp rather than trying to hold for more. Similarly, it is not until the ADX gets above 25 that trend-trading shorts will have a more favorable risk-reward.
20-Day EMA at $0.147 Transforms Into Resistance After Bulls Fail Reclaim
The entire moving average structure of HBAR has now been overhauled. The 10-day EMA has snapped below the 20, invalidating the uptrend. Given the 50-day EMA can no longer offer support, if the 10-day EMA slips under the 50 too, we expect a resumption of the previous downtrend. This would reconstruct the EMA death cross, overlook the 20-day EMA, the 100-day EMA and the 200-day EMA.
Notably, the 50-day EMA began turning downwards at this time, with the 200-day EMA leveling out in response. A golden cross, seen as quite bullish, is in effect until the next bearish 20-day MA/50-day EMA cross. Highly indicative of direction if it plays out are these particular crosses.
Resistance Clusters Between $0.147 and $0.163 Form Rejection Zone
Sellers have placed numerous resistance levels above the current price, many of which confluence with key exponential moving averages and previous support zones. The first resistance is currently established at $0.1475 (20 EMA), followed by $0.150 where longs from the recent partnership announcement are holding bags, and the 50 EMA at $0.152. Bulls are trying to defend the critical support level at $0.134. This level has resulted in a rebound twice in a row this week. A break below this level could pull the price down to the December low of $0.122. Subsequently, the XRP/USD pair could drop to the monthly S2 pivot of $0.107. This would mean a further decline of 12% from the current levels. Given the current negative bias, this downside is likely to be tested if the support at $0.134 cracks.
The pattern we are setting up for looks to be a descending triangle with those lower highs, meeting some levels of support. The Georgia partnership news gave us the perfect retest of the breakdown levels as that failed fairly convincingly. Those are typically to the south side, especially when you don’t get volume expansion and momentum shifting with them. And we did not get that with the news being fairly positive.
December Low at $0.122 Likely Retests as News Pump Fails
To turn things around, the bulls need to make a clear breakout above the 50-day EMA at $0.152 and then march higher to reach the 100-day EMA at $0.163. Positive news stemming from the enterprise adoption of blockchain technology in Georgia and Hedera’s expansion into the AI sector could bolster a potential breakout. However, we’ll have to wait for a confirmed breakout before looking to take any positions. To confirm a breakout, the volume must be at least 20% above the 10-day average trading volume.
The setup will fail if the $0.134 floor gives way on volume, shaking out the stop-losses of recent buyers before heading for the December low at $0.122. Even more importantly, a weekly close below $0.13 will all but seal the fate of the descending triangle, exposing even lower prices. Given last week’s price action, it appears that distribution is still in progress. A successful test at $0.134 would make shorting the decline to $0.13 attractive.
Based on the technical setup and the overall lackluster reaction from the market to bullish developments, it is probable that HBAR will revisit the December low at $0.1220 in the short term before a solid bottom is reached. The coin has been gradually declining in recent days. It offers a buying opportunity for traders between $0.1061 and $0.1250.
