HBAR Plunges 17% as Momentum Exhausts Despite DeFi Expansions
Market Pulse
- HBAR shed 17.2% over the past month, trading at $0.158 despite new WBTC integration
- RSI crashed from overbought territory to 39.19, marking first oversold reading since October
- Support at $0.156 holds after six tests, but bulls struggle to reclaim the 20-day EMA at $0.178
Hedera’s native token HBAR experienced a devastating drop of 17.2% over the past month, sliding from $0.191 to current levels at $0.158 as profit-taking overwhelmed the positive sentiment from recent DeFi integrations. The coin’s three-month performance shows an even grimmer picture with a 36% decline, erasing much of the gains accumulated during crypto’s broader rally. The main question for traders is: can the newly integrated Wrapped Bitcoin and ERC-3643 tokenization standard provide enough fundamental support to halt this technical breakdown, or will sellers continue pressing lower toward yearly lows?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | HEDERA (HBAR) |
| Current Price | $0.16 |
| Weekly Performance | -2.92% |
| Monthly Performance | -17.20% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 39.2 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 20.2 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.01 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -133.95 |
Momentum Crashes to 39.19 – First Oversold Signal Since October’s Bottom
RSI sits at 39.19 on the daily timeframe, plunging from overbought readings above 70 just weeks ago – a dramatic shift that mirrors the price collapse from December highs. This marks HBAR’s first venture into oversold territory since the October washout that preceded a 169% yearly gain, suggesting either capitulation is near completion or deeper pain awaits those catching this falling knife.
What’s revealing is how RSI behaved during the WBTC integration announcement – instead of providing relief, the oscillator barely budged, continuing its descent as sellers used any positive news as exit liquidity. So for swing traders, this oversold bounce setup requires confirmation above RSI 45 before considering entries, as the momentum structure remains decisively bearish despite the extreme reading.
ADX at 20.16 Signals Choppy Conditions Replace November’s Strong Trend
Looking at trend strength, the ADX reading of 20.16 indicates the powerful directional movement that characterized November’s rally has completely dissolved into range-bound chop. Basically, being in this zone means neither bulls nor bears command clear control – perfect conditions for whipsaws that trap both sides.
To clarify, the ADX is indicating that we are transitioning from trending to consolidation mode after the sharp selloff exhausted itself near monthly lows at $0.156. Therefore, day traders should adapt their strategies to range-trading setups between $0.156-$0.178 rather than chasing breakouts, at least until ADX climbs back above 25 to signal renewed directional conviction.
20-Day EMA at $0.178 Transforms From Support to Stubborn Resistance
Price action tells a clear story through the EMA ribbons – HBAR trades below every major moving average, with the 10-day ($0.173), 20-day ($0.178), and 50-day ($0.181) all stacked bearishly overhead. Most significant is how the 20-day EMA changed from being a reliable support level during the uptrend to now acting as a ceiling that rejected three rally attempts this week.
The 100-day EMA lurks much higher at $0.189, nearly 20% above current price, illustrating just how far HBAR has fallen from its intermediate-term trend. That former support area at $0.178 now transforms into a red line for bears to defend – any daily close above it would signal potential trend reversal, especially with the new DeFi integrations potentially attracting institutional flows.
Bears Stack Resistance From $0.172 to December Highs at $0.220
Sellers have constructed a formidable resistance wall starting at the immediate zone between $0.172-$0.178, where the 10-day and 20-day EMAs converge with recent rejection wicks. Above that, the monthly pivot at $0.193 coincides with the psychological $0.20 level, creating a double barrier that has capped every rally attempt since late November.
Bulls defend support more successfully, with the $0.156-$0.158 area proving remarkably resilient through six separate tests over the past two weeks. This level gains additional significance as it aligns with October’s breakout point – lose it, and there’s an air pocket down to $0.140 where buyers last accumulated before the yearly rally.
Market structure reveals an increasingly compressed range between $0.156-$0.178 that resembles a coiled spring. The integration of WBTC and ERC-3643 compliance standards could provide the fundamental catalyst for an eventual breakout, but until price reclaims the 20-day EMA, the technical bias remains bearish.
Bulls Need Decisive Close Above $0.178 to Shift Momentum
Should price reclaim and hold above the 20-day EMA at $0.178 with conviction, bulls could target the 50-day at $0.181 and eventually the resistance cluster at $0.193. The WBTC integration expanding Hedera’s DeFi capabilities provides the fundamental narrative to support such a recovery if buyers step in with volume.
Bearish acceleration triggers if support at $0.156 breaks on a daily close – this would trap recent dip-buyers and likely flush positions down to $0.140 or potentially the yearly pivot at $0.110. Without immediate buying interest materializing from the new institutional-friendly features, sellers maintain the upper hand.
Given the oversold RSI, compressed ADX, and multiple support tests at $0.156, the most probable near-term scenario sees HBAR chopping between $0.156-$0.172 while digesting the recent decline. The ERC-3643 tokenization news may need time to translate into actual usage before providing sustainable upward momentum.
