Dogecoin Tests Critical Support as Network Activity Surges Despite 15% Weekly Drop
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- LEO down 5% to $9.15 with daily RSI at 37.8 indicating oversold conditions.
- ADX jumps to 28.8, signaling a shift from consolidation to a directional trend.
- Key levels: resistance at $9.48–$9.60–$9.89, critical support at $9.00 and below.
As of now, LEO is trading at $9.15, marking a 5% loss over the past week. Other cryptocurrencies are also experiencing a consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe has decreased to 37.8, giving the first oversold indication since October. The Average Directional Index (ADX) has increased to 28.8, which indicates the onset of a directional movement after several weeks of price volatility.
LEO has lost 5% in a week, dropping to $9.15 as losses picked up the pace during the breach of crucial support areas. Its monthly performance indicates slight underperformance at -0.17%, but the recent rupture of the $9.50-$9.60 ranging zone indicates a crucial change in the immediate trend. So, are we likely to bounce from oversold conditions just above the psychological $9 level, or is this rather the beginning of a move down to the $8.50s support and next IEO-level price floor?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | DOGECOIN (DOGE) |
| Current Price | $0.14 |
| Weekly Performance | -1.07% |
| Monthly Performance | -14.90% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 41.3 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 36.3 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.01 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -82.81 |
RSI Drops to 37.8 – First Oversold Reading Since October’s Accumulation Phase
With the price swiftly approaching the 21-day moving average, a retracement to ~$7.50 is feasible, where buyers can emerge for two-thirds retracement support. If momentum fails the 21-day MA, a full retracement to the prior order block around $6.40 may be in the cards. This would allow buyers to re-accumulate in that zone and form a double-bottom, a fundamentally bullish structure.
What is interesting is the divergence in RSI based on the time frame. The daily RSI is at 37.83, while the weekly RSI is a good 47.18 which indicates that the long-term uptrend is still intact, despite the recent decline. For swing traders, this combination of the oversold daily RSI and the neutral weekly RSI present a low risk, high potential trade, especially if the price of the stock can cross the 10-day EMA at $9.48.
ADX at 28.8 Confirms Sellers Control Directional Movement
Trend strength signals clearly indicate how much momentum is behind a given move. An ADX reading of 28.82 at entry tells us that we have shifted from the sideways chop of December into a trending phase. This cross above 25 happened right as LEO lost the $9.50 support, and did so emphatically.
In contrast to the November consolidation when ADX was below 20 for weeks, the latest readings indicate that sellers are taking a firmer grip and gaining strength. With ADX at 25.3, the trend is becoming more mature by the day. This means that the trading strategies in a range, which was applicable during the $9.40-$9.60 compression, are becoming obsolete and traders are forced to transition to the new reality – trading in a trending environment with more than a momentum unit potentially available. Per usual, momentum persists long than most anticipate.
20-Day EMA at $9.51 Now Acts as Dynamic Resistance After Support Failure
Looking at the daily technical indicators: The RSI is around the 50 midline, neither overbought nor oversold, it has been trading relatively flat for the past 3 weeks. The MACD is loitering around the midlines, but a bullish crossover has just materialized. The 9-day CCI printed a positive divergence a few days ago, drawing a potential higher low. The Stochastic %K just passed above the %D and is heading north; signaling more upside potential.
The most important thing to note is the 20-day EMA turned from support to resistance after supporting price during early December. This level blocked advances on December 20th and 22nd on rising volume, confirming sellers were eager to defend the breakdown. The 100-day EMA at $9.43 is perched just over current price, providing final technical defense before the 200-day EMA down around $9.30 gets tested. Bulls must take back that $9.50 zone with authority to repair the chart damage.
Resistance Stacks Between $9.48 and $9.89 While $9.00 Becomes Critical Support
Sellers have established several resistance levels above the current price. The first resistance area ranges from $9.48 to $9.51, which also corresponds to the EMA cluster and the point at which the uptrend reversed. The following significant resistance is the December consolidation high of $9.60, and the top of the range that initiated the current drop is the monthly high at $9.89.
The support architecture appears weaker following this week’s failure. The pivotal $9.00 psychological level remains as the initial significant foundation, supported by the weekly S1 pivot at $9.00. If breached, the monthly S1 at $8.82 converges with October’s consolidation area, rendering the $8.80-$8.85 section essential for bulls to protect. A settlement beneath $9.00 will probably prompt additional long-liquidation into that region.
Sellers continue to hold the upper hand below $9.50, and this could be the case for some time given the pending formation of a death cross (50MA crossing below the 200MA). If sellers manage a convincing daily close below $8.50, the door fully opens for a return to $7 or lower. Key resistance is now between $9.10-9.25, with the most important area still $9.50.
Bulls Require Decisive Close Above $9.50 to Repair Technical Damage
If the price can rise above the $9.50 EMA cluster and do so with substantial trading volume, the oversold rally might push it closer to the $9.60 resistance, as that is where the high of December’s trading range sits. For sellers to take back control of these moving averages, buyers will need to provide price support over an extended period since a test higher followed by rejection will only strengthen the bearish sentiment. Winding down at 47, the weekly RSI offers some breathing room for the buyers provided that they can contain the $9.00 level.
If LEO loses the $9.00 support on a daily close, the bearish scenario accelerates. In that case, we would target the $8.80-$8.85 zone where monthly S1 pivot meets historical accumulation levels. ADX is confirming trending conditions and the sellers are in control of the -DI. Any relief rally that fails at $9.50 resistance would likely draw in fresh shorts with potential to drive price towards the 200-week moving average near $8.25.
Based on the technical setup and lack of near-term drivers, the most likely short-term scenario is for LEO to consolidate in the $9.00-$9.50 region and alleviate oversold pressures via time-price discovery mechanisms. Given the elevated ADX, this phase of consolidation could be short-lived before the next impulse move begins; breaking either range extreme will determine if bulls can stage a rally attempt or sellers target lower levels.
