Chainlink Tests Critical Support as DeFi Expansion News Fails to Halt 27% Monthly Slide
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- LINK торгуется по $13.68, что на 27% ниже декабрьского максимума
- RSI снизился до перепроданной зоны на уровне 36.76
- Шестая проверка поддержки $13.44 на 200-дневной EMA
As of now, LINK is trading at $13.68, which is 27% less than its December high, even with so much good news in the LINK ecosystem. The RSI has dipped to an oversold 36.76, which is the same level from the capitulation phase last August. The sixth test LINK has had does month of critical $13.44 support as bulls fight to keep the 200-day EMA confluence zone.
The price action for Chainlink speaks to a broader trend throughout the altcoin market. Coins like Ether, Litecoin, and EOS are all struggling relative to Bitcoin as they fail to put in new highs and rapidly fade from view. All have far underperformed BTC over the past month—suggesting longer-term trends remain intact. This chart shows the LINK/BTC rate dropping back under the pivotal 2,300 satoshis level it first conquered in May after bitcoin’s halving event. The significant price level may now flip from critical support to crucial resistance. LINK is now oscillating in no man’s land around 2,000 sats, with 1,600 sats the next support level of note—a long way beneath.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | CHAINLINK (LINK) |
| Current Price | $13.68 |
| Weekly Performance | -9.70% |
| Monthly Performance | -26.74% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 36.8 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 45.5 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -1.12 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -95.48 |
Momentum Exhaustion Signals Capitulation – Matches August Bottom
The RSI entered oversold territory at 36.76 on the daily timeframe, the first such reading since the August lows led to a relief rally upwards of 40%. This time around, there was no single, excruciating loss of momentum event that preceded the 5-month lower low, as the weekly RSI capped at 53.78. This suggests distribution by institutions as opposed to panic retail long liquidation.
It is interesting to note that comparable RSI setups in September and October also indicated notable local bottoms, and the subsequent rallies before becoming exhausted averaged 25-30%. Therefore, for swing traders, this balanced risk-reward setup at oversold readings offers the first attractive entry opportunity in months, especially considering that this time there is the added fundamental fuel of the CCIP implementation news which was not available on any previous oversold rebound.
ADX at 45.52 Confirms Mature Downtrend Nearing Exhaustion Point
With the ADX at 45.52, the XRP rally is technically more overheated relative to some of the major altcoin rallies from Q4 and early 2021. This includes late-September when Chainlink (LINK) appeared primed for a moon mission and late-October setting up for a capitulation event before staging its early November rally from $10 to $19.
In simple terms, the ADX is suggesting that sellers probably used up all their bullets following this month-long phase of distribution. Hence day traders ought to adapt their tactics for possible volatility amplification in either direction as extreme ADX values tend to lead to powerful countertrend moves or at least a phase of ranging action. The cross-border payments update and Rubicon DeFi launch failed to act as a technical repair. Still, they likely act as the fundamental lifts as soon as this trend exhaustion gets baked in.
200-Day EMA at $13.44 Becomes Final Line of Defense After Multiple Tests
The daily RSI gives a 40 reading, providing ample space for further downside while the daily MACD remains flat and under zero. This last factor presents a neutral stance, as the sideways movements of recent days have yet to gain traction upward.
If you look right there at the moving average setup, the compression right now between current price and the 200-day EMA is like a coiled spring. This level three times in 2023 rejected all of the advances. Finally, it broke in the November rally, and now it becomes a red line the bulls have to hold. A $50 million ecosystem fund deployment coming up could be the fundamental spark, technically, any daily close below $13.44, and you’re looking for the next major support right around $10.80!
Support Architecture Crumbles Below $13.44 – Resistance Stacks Heavy Overhead
The first major support is the recent double bottom at $12.87, with the possible retest of this level attracting stubborn bulls and fresh speculative short sellers trying to capitalize on that breakdown. Insiders might copy the action, holding off on bids until a shakeout at the 200-day EMA around $12 in coming weeks.
Bulls are trying to defend several support levels below where the price is currently trading, but the confidence doesn’t seem to be as strong. The 200-day EMA confluence is at $13.44, and the yearly low from the summer correction is $12.78. Volume profiles indicate that a good amount of accumulation took place from $10-$12 during the October low, so there could be some institutional buyers willing to defend that region.
Importantly, the market structure indicates that buyers need to retake $15.72 (the 30-day EMA) to change short-term sentiment. Under $13.44, there is a gap to $10.80, where the 200-week moving average sits. The news of CCIP adoption and the launch of cross-border payments acts as a fundamental backstop, but thus far has not resulted in bid-side activity due to the technical nature of the current flow.
Bulls Need Convincing Close Above $15 to Reverse Technical Damage
If the price reclaims and holds above $15, bulls may aim for the 50-day EMA around $16.94. While the stock is oversold and several positive developments support a relief rally (CCIP expanding, Rubicon being integrated, $50 million ecosystem fund), technical confirmation would be required.
If the price declines further from the current levels, it can drop to $12.89 and below it to the critical support at $10.75. A bounce off this support will be positive as it will indicate that bulls are accumulating on dips. This level has not broken since March 2021.
Considering the oversold conditions, extreme trend exhaustion signals, and critical support test at the 200-day EMA, the likely near-term scenario is a relief bounce to $15-$16 before sellers take the lead again. The ecosystem developments offer a solid foundation, but technical recovery will not happen quickly following the ruinous drop this month.
