Celestia Momentum Crashes to Multi-Month Lows as TIA Tests Critical $0.66 Support
Market Pulse: Three Critical Developments
- The TIA momentum loss has reached the extreme, with capitulation levels of 36.68 RSI.
- The price has dropped 28% in a week, even with the Matcha update which could increase throughput by 16 times.
- ADX is compressed to 27.93, which means trend traders need to ready themselves for a rocket.
The recent price movements of Celestia have been disappointing for investors, as the coin decreased by 28.13% over the past week to reach $0.660414. This movement came even after the highly anticipated Matcha upgrade, which was made to skyrocket the speeds on which blocks were produced. The upgrade promised to transform the entire modular blockchain space with 16x throughput improvements and halved inflation. However, TIA (Celestia) has just been through a significant jump and dump showing a clear absence of appropriate price discovery along the uptrend. Bulls are trapped below every major moving average with the monthly slaughter currently standing at 58.47%. The main question for traders here lies in whether we can see an oversold bounce appear before $0.50 is tested psychologically.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | CELESTIA (TIA) |
| Current Price | $0.66 |
| Weekly Performance | 6.28% |
| Monthly Performance | -28.14% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 36.7 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 27.9 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.09 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -53.29 |
RSI Plunges to 36.68 – Capitulation Territory Matches August Washout
With the oscillator at 36.68, most traders are seeing classic capitulation signals that have tended to mark major bottoms for TIA on the daily timeframe. The momentum exhaustion setup is similar to the August washout when RSI printed similar readings before a 40% relief rally in late September. The difference is that this current setup lacks the climactic selling volume and fear that characterize a true blood-in-the-streets washout low.eliacourt, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commo
Therefore, swing traders would be well served to monitor this $0.72 level because it offers a low-risk, high-reward inflection point. If XSPA regains this level, it’s likely to see follow-through buying pressure over $1, with the 50-day moving average likely capping the rebound for short-term traders. The key is that between here and a successful reclaim of the $0.72 level, it’s a low-risk, high-reward entry for a potential ebullient squeeze higher.
ADX at 27.93 Signals Coiled Spring Ready to Explode
With the ADX reading at 27.93 we are moving from choppy consolidated to trending but which way still remains to be seen. The reading increased from the low 20s over the past week as the selling picked up some steam, and the decline proved to be more than choppy weakness. In short, the uptrend would connect we have seems to be the real deal.
As a result, day traders need to adjust their tactics to the changing market dynamics. ADX’s compression of support at $0.66 and resistance at $0.72 indicates a clear breakout. It’s worth noting that an ADX setup comparable to the current one in November alerted investors to TIA’s last major price shift. The only difference was that, back then, the breakout was to the positive as a result of the Matcha update hype.
Every Major EMA Flipped to Resistance as Price Trapped Below $0.91
The price action through the EMA ribbons has had very little positive input since $1.50 was lost back at the beginning of June and has since acted as solid resistance routinely throughout the relentless downtrend. Joining the 100-day EMA at $0.910.
The most alarming part of all this is that the 20-day EMA at $0.726, a level that served as established support in October and November, has now been flipped as strong resistance. Bulls have attempted to rally beyond this level thrice this week, to no avail. With the price being squeezed between the 10-day EMA and current levels, a breach below the current floor at $0.66 seems likely, and at the very least, bulls will attempt to make a rebound soon. To do this, they will have to take the 20-day EMA. The 200-day EMA at $1.172, on the other hand, is now a distant memory as it spirals beyond support.
$0.66 Support Holds by a Thread While Resistance Stacks to $0.79
There is strong resistance in the $0.72 to $0.79 range, which is the level where December’s breakdown and the 50-day EMA converged to trap buyers on previous attempts. From there, it’s the psychological $1.00 zone that previously held as solid support before the 100-day EMA forced the price back below it. Neither of these levels gave way when the strong Matcha fundamental news knocked on the door, so clearly in this risk-off setting, technicals are outweighing fundamentals.
Bulls are doing everything they can to keep the $0.66 support intact. The support was tested six times since the weekly candle open. With every retest, the bounce is getting weaker. If the support finally breaks, XRP will likely head toward the next major support level at $0.50. This would be a 24% drop from the current level and a 95% drop from the all time high. Such a sharp decline could lead to final capitulation. The volume profile shows that there are some attempts to accumulate at the current level. However, unless a solid catalyst pushes the price-up sentiment, the support won’t hold for long.
The market is not impressed, and neither below 12 cents, nor below 2 cents could the trend reverse. Low timeframe relief rallies get sold into as approached by degen “buyers”, pushing spot price lower each time. Convinced new lows are inbound on one fat finger before any up-move. It’s done that for 87 days straight.
Recovery Requires Decisive Close Above $0.72 to Prevent Deeper Flush
Those in long positions may consider adding to holdings if key supports at $0.70 and $0.686 hold, with a stop to protect below the November 2020 rout low at $0.657. The red flags firmed this week, with a mean reversion to oversold on the daily RSI failing to find buyers while the MACD histogram flattens negative below the September low. Sell stops are a good idea even for longer-term players, given the coin’s tendency to lose ground rapidly after losing technical levels.
If the support holds then price might spike upwards. In case the spike happens, sellers will likely be found near the $1.00 level. The first resistance beyond that is at $1.15 and $1.25, followed by a minor confluence at the 200-Day Moving Average around $1.40.
Based on the high oversold levels and numerous retests of support, the most likely short-term scenario involves TIA trying to rally towards $0.72-$0.75 but meeting resistance once again. The overall outlook is negative though, and if real buyers don’t show up fast, the situation will worsen, with the price likely to drop below $0.66.
