BNB Tests Monthly Support at $857 After 23% December Plunge
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- BNB lost $216 from December highs, eliminating three months of profits
- Increased selling pressure due to GANA exploit security issues
- Bulls keep vital support zone at $857 for the third time this year
BNB fell from $1,181 to around $857 which was a 23.18% drop, GANA payment exploit on BNB Chain helped bearish sentiments due to security issues. The current price of the token is the lowest since early December as it wiped out most of the autumn rally. Despite a significant GANA investment into the Ondo Finance $25M stablecoin and the announcement of phase two, traders are wondering whether the price will rebound from the current support of $857 or the security narrative will prevail.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | BNB (BNB) |
| Current Price | $857.80 |
| Weekly Performance | -5.45% |
| Monthly Performance | -23.18% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 35.3 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 38.7 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -51.76 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -89.34 |
Momentum Exhaustion Signals Capitulation Phase Near Completion
The daily superior candle wick pokes out from swing high resistance at $53.00 with an extended thrust to parity swinging into the wick of a March ’19 bearish H3 candle at $53.08. Note the wick-to-wick intersection with the bull engulf candle printed the following month. A partial retracement here would hardly come as a surprise and indeed looks likely given prevailing technical conditions.wall
What is interesting to note is the behavior of RSI post the GANA vulnerability news. Rather than falling further, the indicator bottomed near 40 and is now holding around this level. For swing-traders, an RSI holding pattern like this is not necessarily a bad thing. It indicates that much of the immediate selloff has likely run its course, however, a real return of bullish interest will not materialize until RSI can push back above 60, and better yet above its 50-day moving average.
ADX at 38.67 Confirms Mature Downtrend Nearing Exhaustion
When we look at trend strength, the ADX reads 38.67, which is high directional movement that tends to be seen near trend exhaustion points more so than continuation phases. In other words, when ADX gets this high, it is alerting that the present move (December downtrend) has become mature and perhaps has run out of steam.
In simpler terms, the ADX shows that even though there were a lot of strong sellers when the breach happened and the price dropped, soon they’re not going to be so sure about continuing to sell. This means that the price range where the stock is trading might become smaller as we move from a trend phase to a consolidation phase. This is more likely to happen if the price doesn’t go below $857.
50-Day EMA at $976 Becomes Next Major Resistance After Support Flip
The top of the daily Bollinger Bands is the true area of contention, with Binance’s native asset trading 28.5% below the upper band at $1,192. Additionally, the bands are rapidly expanding, suggesting that volatility is likely to persist in the short term.
The break below the 100-day EMA at $960 is especially painful for bulls as this level constantly acted as support during the autumn rally before the GANA hack news prompted panic selling. That previous support-zone between $960-$976 now flips to a resistance zone that bulls need to recapture to indicate any form of rebound – until then, the lower path is easier with EMAs limiting the top-side.
$857 Monthly Support Holds as Final Defense Against Deeper Breakdown
There is strong resistance between the $876 level (10-day EMA) and the $960-$976 zone, as the 50-day and 100-day EMAs intersect with December’s breakdown level. Further resistance is at the $1,000 psychological level and December’s monthly pivot at $1,103. Buyers must surpass all of these levels to turn around the negative sentiment caused by the security breach news.
Bulls are defending the support as if their lives depended on it. $857 has seen buyers step in to defend price action on every occasion in 2024. Additionally, it coincides with the current monthly low and important horizontal support from past tests, so the stablecoin investment news of Ondo Finance has helped bulls to maintain their footing. Nevertheless, if they lose $857, the next line of defense is found at $789 (weekly low).
The market structure is showing a tight battle zone between $857 support and $876 resistance, with the GANA exploit aftermath making buyers a little weary, and sellers having a hard time pressing price below the solid support. This condensed $19 range is somewhat akin to a coiled spring, indicating that the next move could be massive, once either boundary is taken out with volume.
Recovery Requires Close Above $976 to Shift Sentiment Post-Exploit
For this scenario to play out, bulls would need to expose bears who will be trying their utmost to defend this level. Their liquidation would be in the mid-$1,000, beyond where stop losses may have been placed by others shorting the technical breakdown.
If this support level can hold, it might provide a platform for buyers to return and remount resistance at $964. That would pause the current downdraft at higher levels, allowing the stock to consolidate narrow trading range before picking a directional bias. The on-balance volume (OBV) accumulation-distribution indicator supports the neutral to negative outlook, posting new lows in six months while holding above the 2014 and 2015 lows.
Since the excessive ADX readings and RSI’s steadying in a neutral setting after sidestepping undersold tendencies indicated a maturing downtrend, the most likely short-term response would be the consolidation of $857-$900 as the market would need to absorb December’s sell-off based on security before making a directional effort to the downside.
