Aptos Tests Critical Support as Token Unlock Fears Mount at $1.99
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- APT plunged 28% over the past month to $1.99, erasing nearly all November gains
- Token unlock schedule looms large with $1.8B worth hitting markets in December 2025
- Stablecoin expansions from Paxos and CreatorFi provide fundamental lifeline amid technical breakdown
Aptos darted through multiple support levels this week, shedding 12% in seven days and extending its monthly collapse to a devastating 28% drop. The layer-1 blockchain’s native token now trades at $1.99, matching its weekly and monthly close prices in a sign of compressed volatility after the washout. The main question for traders is: can the fresh stablecoin partnerships from Paxos and CreatorFi’s $2M backing provide enough fundamental support to arrest this technical breakdown before the massive token unlocks create additional selling pressure?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | APTOS (APT) |
| Current Price | $1.99 |
| Weekly Performance | -12.13% |
| Monthly Performance | -28.34% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 29.7 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 46.9 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.29 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -84.02 |
RSI at 53.86 Signals Neutral Territory After Capitulation Complete
RSI sits at 53.86 on the daily timeframe, marking a recovery from oversold conditions but still reflecting the damage from December’s collapse. This neutral reading emerges after price shed over a quarter of its value, suggesting the initial panic selling has exhausted itself. What’s revealing is how RSI barely budged despite the 12% weekly drop – at 53.86, the oscillator shows equilibrium between buyers stepping in at these levels and remaining sellers dumping positions ahead of the $1.8B token unlock scheduled for December 2025.
Similar RSI configurations following major corrections in layer-1 tokens have historically preceded consolidation periods rather than immediate reversals. The weekly RSI reading of 30.01 tells a more dramatic story – this marks genuine oversold territory and matches levels last seen during market-wide capitulation events. So for swing traders, this balanced daily RSI combined with oversold weekly conditions suggests APT may build a base here, though any rallies will likely face heavy resistance from unlock-related selling pressure that traders are already pricing in.
ADX at 46.94 Confirms Mature Downtrend Nearing Exhaustion
Looking at trend strength, the ADX reading of 46.94 signals an extremely mature downtrend that’s approaching historical reversal zones. At this elevated level, the selling momentum that drove APT from $2.77 to $1.99 shows signs of exhaustion – trends rarely sustain ADX readings above 45 for extended periods. The -DI dominance at 34.20 versus +DI at 10.24 confirms sellers maintained iron control throughout this decline, but such extreme readings often mark capitulation rather than continuation.
To clarify, when ADX climbs above 40 while price drops 28%, it typically indicates the final washout phase where weak hands get flushed and strong support levels get tested. The Paxos stablecoin launch and CreatorFi’s strategic backing arrive at a technically significant moment – fundamental catalysts hitting just as the downtrend exhausts itself. Therefore, trend followers should prepare for a potential shift from trending to ranging conditions, with the ADX likely to roll over from these extreme levels regardless of whether APT bounces or bases.
20-Day EMA at $2.33 Becomes First Resistance After Support Failure
Price action through the EMA ribbons paints a clear picture of technical breakdown. APT currently trades well below the entire moving average stack, with the 10-day EMA at $2.11 providing immediate resistance just 6% above current levels. More concerning, the 20-day EMA at $2.33 and 50-day EMA at $2.52 have both flipped from support to resistance during this month’s collapse, creating multiple overhead barriers that bulls must reclaim to signal any meaningful recovery.
The compression between current price at $1.99 and the 10-day EMA at $2.11 represents the first test for any bounce attempt. Bulls need to reclaim and hold above $2.11 to even attempt an assault on the more significant 20-day EMA at $2.33. That former support area at $2.33 now transforms into a red line that would confirm whether this decline represents a healthy correction or the start of a deeper retracement toward the yearly support near $1.50 where the 200-day EMA waits as the final backstop.
Support at $1.82 Faces Test as December Low Looms
Immediate resistance stacks between $2.11 (10-day EMA) and the psychological $2.50 level where the 50-day EMA converges with round-number resistance. The monthly pivot R1 at $2.26 falls right between these levels, creating a resistance cluster that would require significant volume to overcome. Above that, the December high at $2.96 feels distant given current momentum, though the stablecoin developments could provide unexpected catalysts.
Support architecture looks more critical with APT testing the $2.00 psychological level. The December low at $1.82 represents the next major support just 8.5% below current levels, with monthly pivot support S1 at $1.50 providing a deeper safety net that coincides with the 200-day EMA. This $1.50 level gains additional significance as it marked the November low before the rally that eventually failed at $2.96.
Market structure reveals a coin caught between massive upcoming supply pressure from token unlocks and genuine ecosystem growth from stablecoin adoption. The setup resembles a coiled spring where the $1.82-$2.33 range could contain price action until either the unlock fears materialize into actual selling or the fundamental developments generate enough demand to absorb new supply. Given the 46.94 ADX reading, expect this range-bound action to dominate near-term trading as the trending momentum exhausts itself.
Range-Bound Consolidation Most Probable as Unlock Timeline Approaches
Bulls require a decisive close above the 20-day EMA at $2.33 to shift momentum and target the 50-day EMA at $2.52. Only sustained trading above $2.52 would signal that ecosystem growth from Paxos USDG and CreatorFi’s platform can overcome the token unlock overhang. Such a move would open the path toward the monthly R2 at $2.77, though each resistance level would likely require positive fundamental catalysts to break through given the looming supply increase.
The bearish scenario triggers if APT loses the December low at $1.82 on volume – this would trap recent bottom-fishers who bought the stablecoin partnership news and likely accelerate selling toward the $1.50 support where the 200-day EMA waits. A breakdown below $1.50 would confirm that token unlock fears overwhelm any positive developments, potentially opening an air pocket toward $1.00 psychological support.
Given the exhausted ADX at 46.94 and neutral RSI at 53.86, the most likely scenario sees APT consolidating between $1.82 and $2.33 as the market digests both the positive stablecoin developments and negative unlock timeline. This sideways grind allows the technical indicators to reset while traders position ahead of the December 2025 unlock event that could define APT’s medium-term trajectory.
