Aptos Plunges 28% as Token Unlocks Loom Despite Network Expansion
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- APT tumbles 27.9% weekly, testing critical support at $2.00 as selling pressure mounts
- Token unlock fears overshadow positive developments including Paxos USDG0 launch
- Technical indicators flash oversold but momentum remains decisively bearish
Aptos has suffered a devastating 27.9% weekly drop, plunging from $2.78 to barely holding the psychologically critical $2.00 support level as looming token unlocks trigger aggressive selling despite a flurry of positive network developments. The contrast between fundamental progress – including Paxos launching its USDG0 stablecoin on Aptos and CreatorFi securing $2M strategic backing – and brutal price action illustrates how unlock fears can overwhelm positive catalysts in crypto markets. The primary question facing traders: can APT defend this $2.00 floor or will December’s anticipated supply increase push it toward the next major support at $1.50?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | APTOS (APT) |
| Current Price | $2.00 |
| Weekly Performance | -11.65% |
| Monthly Performance | -27.95% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 30.0 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 46.9 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.29 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -80.94 |
RSI Plunges to 29.95 – Deepest Oversold Territory Since May Capitulation
Momentum indicators paint a picture of extreme seller exhaustion, with the daily RSI cratering to 29.95 – a level that historically marks capitulation phases rather than orderly corrections. This reading matches the oversold extremes seen during May’s market-wide washout when APT bottomed near $1.60, suggesting panic selling has reached unsustainable levels even as the token unlock overhang persists.
What’s revealing is how RSI barely budged from oversold territory even during minor bounces this week, indicating bulls lack conviction to buy the dip aggressively ahead of December’s supply event. For swing traders hunting oversold bounces, this persistent weakness below RSI 30 warns that catching this falling knife requires extreme caution – previous oversold readings this deep preceded either violent relief rallies or further capitulation to new lows.
ADX Surges to 46.94 – Sellers Control With Rare Conviction
Trend strength exploded higher as ADX rocketed to 46.94, marking one of the strongest directional moves in APT’s trading history. At this extreme reading, the market has shifted from November’s choppy consolidation into a mature downtrend that typically exhausts itself only after touching major historical support levels – explaining why price sliced through multiple technical levels without pause.
Basically, when ADX climbs above 40, it signals institutional-grade selling rather than retail panic, and the current 46.94 print suggests large holders are positioning ahead of the token unlock event. Day traders should adapt to this trending environment by favoring short-side setups on any relief bounce toward resistance, as readings this elevated typically persist for days before mean-reverting below 25.
20-Day EMA at $2.33 Now Caps Any Recovery Attempt
Price action through the moving average structure tells a devastating story – APT trades below the entire EMA ribbon from the 10-day ($2.11) through the 200-day ($3.41), with each average flipping from support to resistance during this week’s cascade. Most critically, the 20-day EMA at $2.33 rejected two relief attempts, confirming sellers defend this level aggressively as trapped longs exit on any bounce.
Looking at the broader picture, the 50-day EMA at $2.85 sits nearly 43% above current price – a gap that illustrates the violence of this selloff relative to APT’s typical volatility. The former support cluster between $2.30-$2.50 where price consolidated throughout November now transforms into a resistance zone that bulls must reclaim to even begin discussing trend reversal.
Support Hangs By Thread at $2.00 as Token Unlock Deadline Approaches
Above current levels, resistance stacks up formidably between the psychological $2.50 level and November’s breakdown point at $2.78, with the 20-day EMA splitting this zone at $2.33. Each failed attempt to reclaim these levels this week added confirmation that sellers remain in control, using any strength to distribute positions ahead of December’s supply increase.
Bulls defend their final stand at the round-number $2.00 support, which held six tests since Monday despite overwhelming selling pressure. This level gains importance not just from its psychological significance but from May’s price action when $2.00 marked the bounce point before APT’s summer recovery – though that rally occurred without the token unlock overhang currently pressuring markets.
Market structure reveals a troubling pattern where each bounce grows weaker while selling intensifies on breakdowns. The volume profile shows accumulation dried up below $2.20, suggesting institutional buyers wait for either the unlock event to pass or much lower prices before stepping in aggressively. Without a catalyst to offset unlock fears, the path of least resistance remains lower.
Bulls Need Miracle Close Above $2.33 to Avoid December Disaster
For any bullish reversal to gain credibility, APT must first defend $2.00 support through the weekly close, then mount a conviction reclaim of the 20-day EMA at $2.33 with volume exceeding this week’s selling. Even then, the psychological damage from this 28% plunge combined with looming token unlocks creates a ceiling of sellers eager to exit on any relief rally toward $2.50-$2.78.
The bearish scenario accelerates if $2.00 support cracks on volume, exposing an air pocket down to May’s low near $1.50 where the next meaningful support cluster resides. A daily close below $1.95 would confirm breakdown continuation, likely triggering stop-losses from late dip-buyers and potentially cascading toward the $1.50 target as unlock fears become self-fulfilling.
Given the extreme oversold readings, a dead-cat bounce toward $2.15-$2.30 appears probable in the coming sessions before sellers reassert control ahead of December’s token unlock event. However, until that supply overhang clears and technical structure repairs above the 20-day EMA, APT remains a falling knife that even aggressive dip-buyers should approach with extreme caution.
