APT Tests Critical $1.97 Support as Token Unlocks Loom Over December Trading
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- APT trades at $1.97, defending six-month lows after a devastating 28.9% monthly decline
- Token unlock event worth $1.8B scheduled for December creates overhang pressure
- Stablecoin launches from Paxos and CreatorFi provide fundamental support amid technical weakness
Aptos has shed nearly 29% over the past month, currently changing hands at $1.97 as sellers drove price to test critical support levels not seen since June. The coin’s performance stands out negatively even in a broader crypto correction, with APT down 53.5% over three months compared to many majors holding up better. The main question for traders is: can fundamental developments like new stablecoin integrations offset the technical damage and looming $1.8B token unlock that’s casting a shadow over December trading?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | APTOS (APT) |
| Current Price | $1.97 |
| Weekly Performance | -12.83% |
| Monthly Performance | -28.91% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 29.3 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 46.9 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.30 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -84.52 |
Momentum Exhaustion Signals Capitulation Phase Near Completion
RSI sits at 29.32 on the daily timeframe, marking the first venture into oversold territory since the August washout that preceded a 40% relief rally. This reading suggests seller exhaustion after the relentless downtrend from November’s $3.37 peak, though momentum indicators alone rarely call exact bottoms in crypto markets.
What’s revealing is how RSI behaved during the recent decline – it made lower lows alongside price action, confirming genuine selling pressure rather than a manipulated flush. So for swing traders, this deeply oversold condition creates a high-probability bounce setup, but only if APT can hold the $1.97 level through the weekend close. The upcoming token unlock adds a wildcard that could extend oversold conditions longer than typical setups.
ADX at 46.94 Confirms Mature Downtrend Nearing Exhaustion Point
Looking at trend strength, the ADX reading of 46.94 indicates we’re dealing with a powerful directional move that’s approaching historical reversal zones. Basically, when ADX climbs above 45 in crypto markets, it often signals trend exhaustion regardless of direction – bulls or bears have pushed too hard, too fast.
Therefore, day traders should prepare for increased volatility as this extreme trending condition unwinds. The combination of oversold RSI and elevated ADX creates conditions ripe for sharp reversals, though the $1.8B December unlock event could delay any sustainable recovery.
To clarify, high ADX doesn’t predict direction change, just that the current trend is overextended and vulnerable to profit-taking or short-covering rallies.
20-Day EMA at $2.32 Becomes First Major Resistance Target
Price action tells a clear story through the EMA structure – APT trades below every major moving average, with the nearest resistance starting at the 10-day EMA ($2.10). More concerning for bulls, the 20-day ($2.32) and 50-day ($2.52) EMAs have rolled over decisively, creating a cascading resistance ladder that will take significant buying power to overcome.
The 100-day EMA at $2.85 now sits 44% above current price, illustrating just how severely this correction has damaged the technical structure. That former support area transformed into a red line that likely caps any relief rallies in the near term. The silver lining: with price so far below all major averages, mean reversion trades offer attractive risk-reward for patient traders willing to wait for confirmation above $2.10.
Support at $1.81 Marks Final Defense Before Yearly Lows
Bulls defend a narrow support band between $1.81 and $1.97, where June’s lows meet the monthly S1 pivot. This zone has attracted buyers three times in the past six months, making it a critical line in the sand. The upcoming token unlock worth $1.8B adds extra weight to this level – if sellers overwhelm demand here, there’s little technical support until the $1.50 psychological level.
Above current price, resistance stacks heavy with the weekly pivot at $2.46 aligning near the 50-day EMA at $2.52. This confluence creates a formidable barrier that likely caps any relief bounce attempts. The monthly pivot sits even higher at $2.95, roughly 50% above current levels, highlighting how much work bulls have ahead.
Market structure remains decisively bearish as long as price stays below $2.32. The CreatorFi launch and Paxos stablecoin integration provide fundamental catalysts that could eventually turn the tide, but technical traders should wait for price to reclaim key EMAs before betting on a reversal.
The December unlock timeline makes timing especially crucial for position sizing.
Token Unlock Shadow Demands Cautious Approach to Recovery Attempts
Bulls require a decisive daily close above $2.10 to neutralize immediate selling pressure and open a path toward the 20-day EMA at $2.32. Should buying interest emerge from the stablecoin ecosystem developments, targets would extend to $2.46 (weekly pivot) and eventually $2.52 (50-day EMA).
The bearish scenario triggers if APT loses $1.81 support on volume, especially if the token unlock creates additional selling pressure. Such a breakdown would likely flush positions down to $1.50 or lower, trapping recent buyers who bet on oversold bounces. Given the 29% monthly decline already logged, this outcome would mark true capitulation.
Taking into account the oversold technicals, looming token unlock, and positive fundamental developments, the most probable near-term path sees APT consolidating between $1.81-$2.10 while the market digests the unlock event impact. Patient accumulation in this range offers the best risk-reward for traders willing to weather potential December volatility.
