APT Plunges 13% as December Token Unlocks Loom Over Stablecoin Momentum
Market Pulse
- APT dropped 13% this week to $1.99 as the $1.8B December unlock schedule weighs on sentiment
- Paxos USDG0 launch and CreatorFi’s $2M backing showcase ecosystem strength despite price pressure
- RSI at 29.24 signals oversold territory while ADX shows trend exhaustion – setup mirrors August bottom
Aptos has taken the elevator down this week, shedding 13% to trade at $1.99 as the looming $1.8 billion token unlock in December casts a shadow over recent ecosystem wins. The devastating drop erased November’s recovery attempts despite major stablecoin launches from Paxos and a $2 million strategic investment in CreatorFi’s creator economy platform. The main question for traders is: will technical oversold signals and fundamental developments provide a floor, or does the unlock overhang guarantee more pain ahead?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | APTOS (APT) |
| Current Price | $2.00 |
| Weekly Performance | -13.03% |
| Monthly Performance | -40.69% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 29.2 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 46.4 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.30 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -88.27 |
RSI Drops to 29.24 – First Oversold Reading Since August Washout
Reading the oscillator at 29.24, traders see classic capitulation territory that historically marks at least short-term bottoms for APT. This marks the first time since August’s broader crypto washout that momentum has reached such exhausted levels, suggesting sellers may have overextended despite legitimate concerns about December’s supply expansion.
What’s revealing is how RSI behaved during similar setups – the August dip to these levels preceded a 45% relief rally within three weeks, though that bounce came without the headwind of massive token unlocks. So for swing traders, this oversold bounce potential exists, but the $1.8 billion unlock scheduled for December acts as a ceiling on any sustained recovery until that supply gets absorbed.
Weak ADX at 10.58 Confirms Trend Exhaustion After Vertical Drop
At the level of 10.58, the ADX entry indicates that the sharp downtrend has exhausted itself into directionless chop. Basically, being in this zone means the aggressive selling that drove APT from $2.30 to $1.99 lacks follow-through conviction – sellers dumped on the unlock news but aren’t pressing the attack.
To clarify, the ADX is indicating that we’ve switched from trending conditions to range-bound action where support and resistance levels matter more than momentum. Therefore, day traders should adapt their strategies to fade extremes rather than chase breakouts until ADX climbs back above 25 to signal a new directional move emerging.
20-Day EMA at $2.36 Becomes Resistance After Supporting Price Since October
Price action tells a clear story through the EMA ribbons – APT now trades below the entire moving average stack with the 10-day at $2.13, 20-day at $2.36, and the critical 50-day at $2.56. The 20-day EMA particularly stands out as it flipped from reliable support during October-November to overhead resistance after this week’s breakdown.
Most significant is the compression between current price at $1.99 and the 10-day EMA at $2.13 – that 14-cent gap represents the first hurdle bulls must clear to even attempt a recovery. The former support zone at $2.36 (20-day EMA) now transforms into a red line that likely caps any relief bounce unless the market suddenly decides the token unlock fears are overblown.
$1.81 Monthly Low Anchors Last-Ditch Support as Resistance Stacks Above
The immediate resistance clusters in a formidable wall between $2.13 (10-day EMA) and $2.36 (20-day EMA), with December’s breakdown point at $2.25 adding another layer. Bulls face a gauntlet of overhead supply from trapped longs who bought the Paxos news only to get clobbered by unlock fears.
Support appears more concentrated with the monthly low at $1.81 standing as the final defense before November’s $1.50 floor comes into play. This $1.81 level has rejected advances six times since June, building a case for reliable support even as the December unlock looms.
Crucially, the market structure shows clear risk asymmetry – roughly 18 cents of downside to key support versus 37 cents needed just to reclaim the 20-day EMA. This 2:1 risk-reward against longs explains why buyers remain sidelined despite oversold conditions and positive ecosystem developments like the CreatorFi launch.
Bulls Need Decisive Close Above $2.13 to Spark Relief Rally
Bulls require a convincing close above the 10-day EMA at $2.13 to confirm even a basic oversold bounce is underway. Should APT reclaim this level and hold it on a retest, the path opens to challenge $2.36 resistance while the Paxos USDG0 integration and CreatorFi platform provide fundamental catalysts beyond just technical oversold readings.
The bearish scenario triggers if APT loses $1.81 support on volume – this would trap recent bottom-fishers and likely cascade toward the $1.50 psychological level where genuinely long-term holders defended in November. It is worth mentioning that breaking below $1.81 would create the lowest weekly close since October 2023.
Given the oversold RSI, exhausted ADX, and proximity to tested support at $1.81, the most probable near-term path sees APT consolidating between $1.81-$2.13 while the market digests both the positive ecosystem news and December unlock implications before picking a direction.
