HBAR Tests Critical Support at $0.11 as Sellers Dominate December Trading
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- The price of the cryptocurrency XRP is still on a steep slide, dropping 22.7% so far in December to erase nearly all its gains from the previous month.
- Can the bulls maintain their defense of vital technical support at around 10.7 cents?
- The August double bottom $0.097 support level held throughout December, providing accumulation opportunities for patient investors.
HBAR returned to late August levels as the effects of December’s NFT bear market dragged prices back under the monthly 50DMA. Semi-unexpectedly, and despite the technical damage, the August double bottom $0.097 support level held throughout the entire month as allowed the bid to drift higher in the 2H despite a general lack of positive sector-related news. Consequently, there were clearly some large continued accumulation opportunities for those with patience and the hbqs to take on risk.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | HEDERA (HBAR) |
| Current Price | $0.11 |
| Weekly Performance | -0.24% |
| Monthly Performance | -22.70% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 39.7 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 32.3 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.01 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -17.94 |
RSI at 39.73 Matches August’s Capitulation Zone
What is interesting to note that RSI during the washout this month now stands at 39.73 having slipped into oversold conditions for the first time since the broader crypto correction in August. In August, HBAR found a bottom just below $0.045 and went on to rally over 250% into the December highs, so that could be something to keep in mind for those looking to potentially bottom-pick around current levels.
Therefore we’re pretty sure those 4HR lower highs are going to be tested. If we should decide to take an extended bullish position this could present risk control opportunities if a stop is placed below the low to define risk with the intention of holding for a larger move. Our 2HR trend and momentum will also be against the bulls although we may enter positions in the 2HR against the 4HR.
ADX at 32.29 Confirms Sellers Control the Trend
When we look at trend strength metrics, the ADX reading of 32.29 indicates that December’s decline is not random chop – there is real directional conviction behind the move lower. The indicator crossed above 25 two weeks ago and continues to push higher, indicating that the developing downtrend still has some momentum behind it, even with deeply oversold momentum readings. We’ve simply transitioned from November’s range-bound accumulation phase to a market that’s trending lower as sellers are setting prices.
In other words, when ADX is greater than 30 and at the same time prices are going down you know that trend following computer programs and/or systematic-type sellers are throwing the kitchen sink at it. This is why no amount of positive-fundamental institutional news could stop the market from dropping—as the technical tail wags the fundamental dog until the trend has run its course or at least until significant technical support hits the market.
50-Day EMA at $0.134 Now Acts as Dynamic Resistance
The moving average structure turned bearish when HBAR dropped below the entire EMA ribbon in early December. At present, the price is also below the 10-day ($0.113), 20-day ($0.117), and most importantly, the 50-day EMA ($0.134), which had been providing support during November’s consolidation. The old support at $0.134 has now turned into resistance that the bulls will have to overcome to restart the momentum.
Even more important is the squeeze between the 100-day ($0.156) and 200-day ($0.157) EMAs above the current price – when these longer-term averages consolidate while the price trades well below them, it usually leads to a relief rally attempt or increased selling as long positions give up. To prevent the bearish cross from forming above, the “institutional year” story must translate into steady buying above $0.134.
Support at $0.107 Faces Crucial Test While Resistance Stacks Above
Bulls are trying to consolidate above $0.11, which was rejected as support earlier this week. Three daily candlesticks look likely to close below this level on Thursday, warning that this could be resistance listlessly flopping into a support test. Also, the 20-day MA is sloping down to this level, tipping the path of least resistance to the downside.
A strong resistance above makes a solid barrier to clear around $0.123 – $0.134, where the December’s breakdown point and declining 50-day EMA intersect. That region was retested twice by sellers during the relief rally attempts last week reinforcing it as a solid resistance zone. A bullish recovery above the monthly R1 pivot at $0.155 appears far-fetched at the moment.
The technical architecture shows a market that will favor additional consolidation between $0.107 and $0.123 until support gives way or buyers prove they’re serious with volume. The tightening range is a mirror image of the consolidation phase from prior cycles that saw HBAR coil up before the subsequent mark up.
Bulls Need Volume Above $0.134 to Revive 2026 Optimism
For bulls to benefit from the institutional news narrative, a daily candle close above $0.134 is needed, with some solid trading volume – if not, the downtrend remains unbroken. If buyers can push the price above this level, the measured move target is $0.156, where the 100/200-day EMAs cluster, leaving the door open for a year-end short-covering rally.
A bearish outcome is anticipated if the $0.107 prop gives out on a daily closing basis, in all probability shaking out positions down to $0.075 where July’s floors offer a fairly sturdy prop. This in turn would catch out a fair few of the recent “institutional adoption” buyers, and wick to $0.06 at best where large scale accumulation was taking place during the lows of summer.
Considering the momentum we have and the oversold daily conditions compared to the neutral weekly ones, it is most likely that HBAR will continue to fluctuate between $0.107 and $0.123 until the end of the year. This will give the daily indicators the opportunity to recover while the weekly ones prepare for the possible catalysts in 2026.
