Litecoin Crashes Through $76 Support as RSI Signals First Oversold Territory Since August
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- Litecoin (LTC) had a shocking December with a 20.4% loss that brought the Litecoin (LTC) price back to the $32.31 level.
- This effectively cancelled out the 13% gain from November’s trading.
- Trading volumes were high in the final month of the year with over $3.5 billion in total trades on exchanges.
Litecoin lost almost one quarter of its value since the middle of November. This move renewed the long-term downtrend, and, with time running low on 2018, additional losses are likely before a credible low is in place. The last few months are a prime example that when you are seeking to terminate more than a year of methodical selling, bullish charts and unmet expectations aren’t even worth the paper they’re printed on.投资者要思考的问题是：当前的超卖水平是否有可能出现一次反弹行情，还是说卖盘会推动价格继续走低，一直拖到年底？
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | LITECOIN (LTC) |
| Current Price | $76.11 |
| Weekly Performance | -8.25% |
| Monthly Performance | -20.43% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 38.6 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 24.6 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -3.23 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -151.80 |
Momentum Exhaustion Reaches August Capitulation Levels
The Relative Strength Index is at 38.6 on the daily chart, the first journey into oversold land since August’s washout and the 35% recovery rally that followed. The fact that it dropped into overbought shortly after its last contraction adds to the evidence to suggest the upcoming bounce should be aggressive again. The RSI in August and May put in slightly lower lows and then a double bottom within 5-7 trading days formed and the index sprung back above 30 to kick off the checkpoint rally. The difference this time is that it has the rest of the market and lower beta alts as a tailwind. It would be shocking if history didn’t rhyme.
Therefore, eager swing longs should exercise patience here and wait for a more favorable RSI position to minimize drawdown risk. The same message is given from the RMI which has entered its logistic regression downtrend punctuated by a bearish crossover. The MACD is pressing south, breaking its signal line to confirm excess downward momentum – bulls maybe vulnerable to a bearish contraction especially if the RSI can’t hold 30.00.
ADX at 24.6 Confirms Sellers Control Trending Conditions
With a 40% count, LTC is also well into the requirements of a PS ledge. The first response to losing the sign of an SC is usually to run a stop sweep of the origin and the 10 count to reset the count. This hasn’t completed yet, giving a bias to target one more low post-sign of a SC as well.
Hence, day traders should apply tactics that exploit directional dynamics rather than contrarian plays on price volatility – momentum is sufficient enough to reverse to the downside. The pending LitVM testnet launch in Q1 2026 could serve as a macro trigger for a turnaround, yet in the absence of ADX returning below 20 or the breach of major resistance, further losses are more likely. Range players would be best served by grandstanding until conditions improve.
50-Day EMA at $83 Becomes Resistance After Year-Long Support Role
The MACD is in freefall following the cross that occurred last Thursday – the short-term 12-day EMA crossed under the long-term 26-day EMA, officially marking the downtrend continuation. The histogram lengthens bearishly and the RSI brushes its highest oversold reading in six months at 24, illustrating extreme sell pressure. The ADX climbing toward 40 while standing between +DI and -DI suggests strong bears are in control of the trend. The tides will not turn until they reach a climax in positioning.
If bulls manage to conquer all these levels, it paves the way for a potential retest/crossover of the 200-day EMA that is currently squaring off against the $100 psychological level which would likely act as a magnet if a broader trend reversal is in the cards. Initial support is now at $75 – a daily close under this level opens the door to retesting $70’s support and potential Full Node Wellington order block.
Support at $70.2 Matches 200-Week MA for Potential Double Bottom
If the bulls break above $78.4, the strongest resistance remains between $90-91. If they manage to overcome these levels, a bounce to the falling December trendline just above $100 is probable. However, with three rejections from the monthly R1 pivot near $87, and its effective role as a launchpad for the breakdown, it’s likely to be a tough slog through the resistance overhead.
Bulls are fighting to hold a key support area at $70.2, which is where the 200-week moving average and August’s accumulation lows intersect. Not only is this the weekly demand line, but it has also been the floor during three significant pullbacks over the past two years. Lastly, the zone is 25% below the December highs. The weekly S1 pivot at $73.6 is the first level of support with the bulls needing to defend it early on. A loss of it will likely trigger another wave of profit-taking into the $70s.
The market environment is decidedly challenging entering the final weeks of 2024. If you are finding it tough going, you most certainly aren’t alone. After months of frequent, often violent, rotations mostly beneath the surface, the S&P 500 began a corrective consolidation during September and October while most of the non-caps were correcting materially. That process now appears to be shifting down into categories that were holding up the best as the largest stocks begin to fail. An overlap of industrial cycle and aggressive monetary policy dynamics has increased the vulnerability and now also includes other factors. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more fractured backdrop to navigate than we have now.
Bears Target $70 as Network Strength Fails to Halt Technical Breakdown
For our part, we will not be entertaining longs until a 4-hourly close above $85 to $86. Savior-unto-me, Kijun-sama (the yellow line) has rushed up to greet this area, reinforcing the expectation of heavy selling if the market even reaches this level. If it breaks, expect fast moves to $90 before ranging ensues to conclude the week. The Six-Hour chart continues to serve as a valuable guide for intraday positions, while the Daily chart has been perfect for swing entries and exits.
If LTC bulls can regain the initiative and keep the $73.6 support, the next key resistances to breach are $79 and $85, followed by $90. A daily close above $90 would be the sign the uptrend is back and rushing for the March high at $100 should pay good short-term fruits. The coin is still set up for an upside continuation, but the price needs to stabilize first. Buying to catch the lows seems a cheaper and more profitable strategy than chasing the top.
There is some oversold bounce potential, but with the technicals still quite weak, Litecoin will likely continue to chop in the near term between $73-79 in an attempt to form a base while sellers hold the line in defending resistance above. With no real drivers in the immediate time frame until LitVM’s testnet release in Q1 2026, ranging and accumulating more time than a V-recovery seems like the most likely scenario, as patient buyers will look for over $83 to be confirmed before hitting the bids strong.
