TON Crashes to $1.44 as On-Chain Damage Amplifies 74% Price Collapse
Market Structure Crumbles Lower
- The actual price crash of 74% from TON’s $0.3 listing to today’s $0.08 has severely damaged on-chain activity and user engagement.
- The project has no development activity and only five open-source contributors, leading to fading interest and application inactivity.
- Toncoin fell 19.7% in the last month to $1.44, sitting 73.5% below its yearly highs, raising questions about support levels.
The actual price crash of 74% from TON’s $0.3 listing to today’s $0.08 is a drop in the bucket compared to the damage wreaked on the project’s on-chain activity, transaction volume, and optional stay-on-the-network metrics. With no development activity and just five open-source contributors, interest quickly faded leaving hardly any user engagement or application activity either.
The recent performance of Toncoin has been atrocious, as it has fallen by 19.7% in the last month to $1.44, a whopping 73.5% below its yearly highs. The crypto-asset’s collapse intensified after on-chain fundamentals reports of damage on the network came to light, with problems shown to be more profound than just the price chart. The important question for traders is whether the $1.24 support area will remain intact or if technical weakness will push TON closer to the crucial psychological level of $1.00.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | TONCOIN (TON) |
| Current Price | $1.44 |
| Weekly Performance | -12.34% |
| Monthly Performance | -19.67% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 34.5 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 40.3 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.07 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -166.05 |
Momentum Exhaustion Signals Capitulation Phase – RSI at 34.5
The Relative Strength Index is at 34.53 on the daily chart, the second lowest reading of 2022 and shows that seller exhaustion is getting close to critical. It hasn’t been this low since the March 2023 flush that led to a 40% relief rally — that time had better on-chain fundamentals than the current severely damaged ecosystem.
What is interesting to note is how RSI responded to the recent downtrend- it hardly tried to get back the 40 levels during several intra-day jumps, meaning that bulls are not even confident at current depressed prices. Hence for swing traders, such deeply oversold readings usually indicate an approaching technical bounce, but as highlighted in the previous reports, on-chain woes mean any relief rally will face strong resistance from trapped longs expecting to get their exits.
ADX at 40.26 Confirms Mature Downtrend Nearing Exhaustion Point
Based on previous ADX entries, it would seem that ADX has hit its tradable peak, and the entry itself signals that price has likely hit a relative extreme. Post-peak ADX prices, in general, often revert or consolidate as large amounts of directional inflows on the back of strong trend characteristics dry up.
Typically, ADX values below 20 are indicative of weak trends; however, a reading below 20 would further exemplify broader market correlation that we continue to trade at MicroVision._VERBOSE also acknowledges the cyclical nature of these trends and expects ongoing choppiness until clearer uptrending conditions are met.
20-Day EMA at $1.57 Becomes First Major Resistance After Support Failure
The relative size of these moving averages suggests areas of formidable resistance should TON see a meaningful short-covering rally. Again, beware: such a rally can (and will?) be used by shorts to reload their sizeable positions. As such, we strongly advise against latching onto this dead-cat bounce in expectation of a sustained rebound.
What stands out is the compression between the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, which are only $0.05 apart from each other. This often occurs before volatile action takes place. The 50-day EMA at $1.76 will be the resistance that bulls have to take back if they are to improve the intermediate trend structure. It will now turn the previous $1.76 support level into a red line that sellers won’t hesitate to pitch, particularly in light of the on-chain weaknesses that are adding to bearish market sentiment.
Support Crumbles at $1.42 While Resistance Stacks From $1.57 to $1.80
There is strong nearby resistance in the $1.52 to $1.57 area, as the 10-day and 20-day EMAs and the weekly pivot point are grouped in this zone. All of December’s support floors have given way, which means that bears remain in full possession of the immediate landscape. The AlphaTON Capital is a possible driver of a turnaround, however, XRP/USD will first have to show that it can hold above $1.57 if it is to entice meaningful demand.
Those supporting the price are likely to exhaust their interest in protecting the previous monthly low, raising the probability of a stop-loss cascade if it gives way. Bulls need increased volume to break the recent downward pattern. A bear flag on the daily chart has formed with a target of $1.18.
Importantly, the market structure indicates total seller control below $1.57. The cup-and-handle formation developed in the beginning of December has morphed into a possible head-and-shoulders extension pattern, aiming for $1.10 in case the neckline backing at $1.42 gives way on higher volume.
Bears Target $1.00 as On-Chain Concerns Override Technical Bounce Potential
If the bulls fail to defend $1.37-$1.32, the selling could intensify and the Alpha Finance price may plummet to $1.10–$1.00. Nonetheless, if that zone fails to prevent a further decline, the trend will complete a full 100% retracement of the major leg up from the May 23, 2021 low, by driving down Alpha Finance price by another 100% to the May 23, 2021 low at $0.50.
If TON loses the $1.42 support on a daily close, this would confirm the head-and-shoulders pattern and could lead positions to be liquidated down to the $1.00 level. In the case of the reports of on-chain damages, any relief rallies will be faced selling into strength as investors liquidate their holdings to avoid any exposure to a potential vulnerable network.
Considering the excessive technical damage and underlying issues, the most likely scenario is for TON to build a base between $1.24 and $1.57 as the on-chain metrics reset. Without the alleviation of the on-chain metrics responsible for the breakdown, relief rallies will have a hard time overcoming the 20-day EMA resistance.
