VeChain Tumbles 28% as Hayabusa Upgrade Fails to Spark Immediate Rally
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- VET plunged 28.36% over the past month despite launching its major Hayabusa network upgrade
- Momentum indicators reset to neutral after December’s selloff, creating a balanced risk-reward setup
- Support at $0.0094 has held through multiple tests while resistance stacks between $0.012-$0.014
VeChain’s native token VET has shed 28.36% over the past month, tumbling from $0.0147 to current levels near $0.0106 as the highly anticipated Hayabusa mainnet upgrade failed to deliver immediate price appreciation. The deployment, which introduced Stargate 2.0 functionality and shifted VeChain to a Delegated Proof of Stake consensus model, couldn’t stem the broader altcoin bleeding that erased over 17% of VET’s value in just the past week. The main question for traders is: has the selloff created a compelling risk-reward setup at these oversold levels, or will the lack of post-upgrade buying pressure signal further downside ahead?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | VECHAIN (VET) |
| Current Price | $0.01 |
| Weekly Performance | -17.94% |
| Monthly Performance | -28.36% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 34.0 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 43.0 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | 0.00 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -158.94 |
Momentum Resets to 34.01 After December’s Capitulation Phase
RSI sits at 34.01 on the daily timeframe, marking the first venture into oversold territory since the August washout that preceded a 45% relief rally. The oscillator’s drop from above 60 in early December to current levels represents one of the sharpest momentum collapses in VET’s recent history, matching the velocity seen during the May 2022 deleveraging event.
What’s revealing is how RSI behaved during the Hayabusa launch window – instead of defending the 40 floor as bulls typically do around major catalyst events, the indicator sliced through support without hesitation. So for swing traders, this balanced-to-oversold RSI reading suggests the market has already priced in disappointment around the upgrade’s immediate impact, potentially setting up a mean reversion play for those willing to catch the knife.
ADX at 43.02 Confirms Mature Downtrend Nearing Exhaustion
Looking at trend strength, the ADX reading of 43.02 signals we’re deep into a directional move – specifically a bearish one given price action. Basically, being in this zone above 40 means the downtrend has matured significantly and historically, ADX readings this elevated tend to mark exhaustion points rather than continuation signals for VeChain.
To clarify, the ADX is indicating that while sellers dominated the Hayabusa rollout period with conviction, such extreme readings rarely sustain for extended periods. Therefore, day traders should prepare for either a sharp reversal as shorts cover or a period of sideways consolidation as the trend loses steam – both scenarios favor fading the current direction rather than chasing it lower.
Price Trapped Below Entire EMA Cloud Since Hayabusa Announcement
Price action tells a clear story through the EMA ribbons. VET currently trades below all major moving averages – the 10-day ($0.0114), 20-day ($0.0121), and crucially the 50-day EMA at $0.0128. This complete bearish alignment emerged right as the Hayabusa upgrade timeline was announced, suggesting “sell the news” dynamics overwhelmed any fundamental improvements the network changes might bring.
Most significant is the compression between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs ($0.0140), which now form a resistance cluster between $0.0128-$0.0140. The former support zone that held throughout November’s accumulation phase has flipped to resistance, meaning bulls face multiple overhead supply zones even if they manage to defend current levels.
Support at $0.0094 Tested Three Times – Buyers Show Resilience
The immediate resistance stacks heavy between $0.0119 (monthly pivot) and the psychological $0.0120 level where December’s breakdown accelerated. Above that, sellers have fortified positions at the 20-day EMA ($0.0121) and more significantly at the 50-day EMA ($0.0128), creating a gauntlet of supply that would require substantial volume to overcome.
Bulls defend a more concentrated support structure, with the monthly low at $0.00943 serving as the critical floor. This level has rejected selling pressure three times since the Hayabusa-driven selloff began, suggesting accumulation despite the network upgrade failing to catalyze immediate buying.
The market structure reveals an interesting disconnect – while the Hayabusa upgrade represents VeChain’s most significant technical evolution with its shift to DPoS consensus and enhanced staking rewards, price action suggests traders remain unconvinced these improvements translate to near-term value appreciation. This sets up a potential spring-loading effect where fundamental developments could eventually catch up to the depressed technicals.
Bulls Require Volume Surge Above $0.0120 to Shift Momentum
Should VET reclaim the $0.0120 psychological level with conviction and hold above the 20-day EMA on a daily close, bulls could target the 50-day EMA at $0.0128 as the next objective. The successful Hayabusa deployment provides fundamental ammunition for such a move if market sentiment shifts toward appreciating the enhanced staking yields and improved network efficiency.
The setup fails if price loses the $0.00943 support on volume, which would likely trigger a flush toward $0.0075 – the next major support from 2023’s accumulation range. Such a breakdown would indicate that even the Hayabusa upgrade’s technical improvements can’t overcome the prevailing risk-off sentiment plaguing smaller altcoins.
Given the extreme ADX reading suggesting trend exhaustion and RSI entering oversold territory for the first time in months, the most probable near-term path sees VET consolidating between $0.0094-$0.0120 as the market digests the Hayabusa changes and awaits clearer signs of adoption metrics improving post-upgrade.
