Kaspa (KAS) Tests Multi-Month Lows as RSI Signals Oversold Territory at 38.30
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- Price downtrend since October 1 from $0.067 to $0.107, currently at $0.0428 (lowest since 2024).
- First weekly close below the 200-day moving average (DMA) since end of July.
- RSI on the daily chart plummeted to 38.30, breaching oversold conditions for the first time in four months.
The sell-off has been relentless but this is the first weekly close below the 200-day moving average (DMA) since the end of July. The trend in October has been quite sharp and we expect that to continue into November until the buyers can regain their composure.
Several metrics suggest this might not be too far away. Most notably, the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart has plummeted to 38.30, the first time it has breached oversold conditions in four months.
The recent price movement of Kaspa highlights the clash between continuous selling pressure and institutional demand at lows of several months. Last week saw the altcoin lose 11.9%, and is currently trading at $0.0428, which is 51.4% less than the highest value in three months. The intervention in the infrastructure of the core group and the accumulation of whales in development, which are increasing in intensity, are in sharp contrast to the technical decline, a deviation that usually indicates significant inflection points. The important question for traders is: will this oversold recovery preparation last, or will sellers stay at $0.05 psychologically?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | KASPA (KAS) |
| Current Price | $0.04 |
| Weekly Performance | -11.90% |
| Monthly Performance | 0.13% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 38.3 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 25.3 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | 0.00 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -114.15 |
RSI at 38.30 Matches Conditions Last Seen Before November’s Rally
With KAS trading 40% below its key 100-day moving average, tension is likely building for a violent snapback. Looking ahead, the shares have averaged 17% gains in the month after expiration over the past six quarters, placing the 200-day near 28 within reach. Further out, the top of a 5-month regression channel is at $32, with the 5-month resistance pivot at $29.12.
Momentum exhaustion is visible in various timeframes – the weekly RSI is at 37.31 and monthly at 42.20 which supports the daily’s oversold indication. Therefore, swing traders have the best probability bounce setup since this summer based on this triple-timeframe alignment. In a technical sense, the Kaspathon developer hackathon announcement couldn’t have arrived at a better time. New utility narratives typically trigger oversold reversals.
ADX at 25.30 Confirms Trend Strength Behind the Selloff
With the ADX at 25.30, the downtrend it is suggesting isn’t just choppy consolidation but a solid, directional movement. It indicates that trend following has been winning out over mean reversion recently, and also why every attempted rally fizzled out. The ADX moved from 18 to where it is now during the past handful of weeks, as sideways grinding has given way to some trending activity.
The interesting part is when these hit the confluence with whale accumulation. Although ADX indicates the down-trending strength, the on-chain metric indicates that the big wallets have been accumulating the trend, showing the divergence of the price trend and smart money’s positions. So, day traders need to brace for the possible volatility spikes that these two opposing pressure hits when reaching the oversold restraints.
Former Support at $0.0483 Now Caps Recovery Attempts
The MACD line and signal lines hover above the zero line, indicating strengthening bearish momentum, with the spread widening slightly over the past three days. The bearish momentum will remain in control as long as the MACD remains on a sell signal. Its positioning deep within negative territory implies the potential for downside progress if bearish pressure resumes. The RSI held within neutral territory at 38 but remains unable to form a bullish divergence that would suggest lift-off from oversold conditions.
Going into the tail end of the year, critical levels remain to the upside, as the weekly chart resistance is found at the $0.056 region and must first be surpassed before the next level can be probed at the monthly level in the $0.0576 zone. The monthly level is critical as it is the origin of the ring lows in May and June 2019, and virtually marks the annual median price of XRP.
Support Architecture Weakens Below $0.0428 After Six Failed Bounces
There is solid support at the confluence of November’s high ($0.0428) and the 200-day EMA ($0.0427). A daily candlestick close below this level would undermine the current uptrend and invite a test of the $0.04 level and the multi-year lows below that. Monthly pivot support at $0.0414 further reinforces this support zone.
Buyers stepped in late last week, but they’re struggling near resistance at $0.0475. Bears are leaning on the level trying to push for continuation. Bulls need to overcome the level along with the daily 4-hour 21-EMA to lessen the chance of a drive lower. Key resistance remains at $0.050 confluence of the daily and 4-hour 200-EMA; only an acceptance above that level will change the bearish bias.
Importantly, the market structure indicates that sellers have the upper hand as long as the price is below $0.0483. Every bounce attempt that does not cross over the 50-day EMA strengthens the bearish sentiment. In addition, whale trading data suggests that institutional players are confident that these levels will not be easily broken. This leads to a situation in which the risks of a decline outweigh the benefits of a rise.
Bulls Need Decisive Close Above $0.0483 to Shift Momentum
If the price can go back up to the 50-day EMA at $0.0483 and do so with some good trading volume, it changes the technical perspective as bulls then could aim for $0.052 where the monthly resistance intersects with the emotional resistance of the 5-2. Kaspathon hackathon would be the solid fundamental reason. The 20-50 day EMA zone is where an oversold relief rally usually capitalizes on, meaning the first target is situated at $0.0475 approximately.
The bearish case would be activated with a daily close below the $0.0428 level, where there has been monthly resistance and should now act as weekly support. In this possible scenario, the price could accelerate losses and slash through the $0.039 previous downside break high.
Due to oversold conditions, whale accumulation, and positive ecosystem news, the most likely short term trajectory is a bounce to test the $0.0475-$0.0483 level as resistance. If we don’t get enough volume from buyers reacting to that level, Kambria will continue to paint a bearish picture and trend downwards.
