Worldcoin Darts Through $0.59 as App Upgrades Spark Fresh Interest
Market Structure Shifts Higher
- Monero price surged 9% in 24 hours to $414.75.
- Broke above key Fibonacci extension levels and descending channel.
- Moving averages alignment confirms an ongoing uptrend.
Monero (XMR) saw a dramatic 9% price surge over the past 24 hours of trading as the cryptocurrency managed to reach as high as $414.75 (1.272 Fib Extension). XMR had surged higher from $340 earlier in the week as it started to push above the $377 (1.414 Fib Extension) resistance level.
Monero is on a steady uptrend after breaking out of a descending channel on the 4-hour time frame. Price has formed higher highs and higher lows to trade above a rising trend line connecting the latest lows of price action. This suggests that the uptrend is more likely to carry on than to reverse. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside or that the rally is more likely to continue than to reverse.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | WORLDCOIN (WLD) |
| Current Price | $0.60 |
| Weekly Performance | 4.00% |
| Monthly Performance | -21.62% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 43.2 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 28.7 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.03 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -68.06 |
Momentum Resets to 57.73 After Testing Overbought Territory
The 5-week MA (red line) has offered reliable support during the uptrend and will be the first hurdle if price descends further. More substantial support resides at the 10-week (blue line), which caught the late February lows and has contained the strong pushes lower seen in October and December. This indicator’s positive slope underlines the current underlying strength in XMR.
The CoinDesk Bitcoin Monero Price Index (XMR/BTC) is up % over the past 24 hours and % since the week began. This contrasts starkly with both Bitcoin and the broader digital currency space over the same period: the bitcoin price is down % on the day and nearly % on the week while the index itself is off % and % over those respective timeframes.
ADX at 19.83 Signals Consolidation Before Next Directional Move
With the 4-hour 20MA crossing below 61.8 retracement, we could see further tests at the 4-hour 200MA at $355 if prices fail to reclaim $370 soon. A break below $355 would likely see a retest of the 4-hour 200MA accompanied by a test of the daily 200MA which will be in the $330 zone by the end of the week.
In simple terms, the ADX has signaled a transition from trending to ranging conditions with an impending major move likely. As a day trader, this means you should adjust your strategy to likely sideways price action bouncing off support and resistance levels rather than a clean-trending market. This has combined with choppy trading conditions at the start of the year as regulators appear to be clamping down after Europol announced it had seized €25 million in Bitcoin as part of a crackdown on a crypto-mixing platform. This is enough to keep the trend followers at bay as they await further evidence of which way things are moving.
50-Day EMA at $377.39 Becomes Critical Support After Price Surge
The RSI continues to hover in overbought territory around 70, signaling a strong degree of buying momentum that has yet to revert to mean. Given the magnitude of Monero’s rally, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the RSI cool off for a bit until the 50-day EMA catches up. This is likely at that point that XMR sees some profit-taking and a retest of the newly established 50-day EMA support. This will be a critical inflection point as Monero’s trend has markedly improved above the 50-day EMA as of late.
On that note, using the recent breakout point just above $370 as our benchmark, a pullback back to retest the breakout offers a nice trade setup that will keep the broader uptrend intact as long as price holds above that level. Falling back below, say, the $360 level cancels this trade idea and opens up a wider corrective phase targeting support at the smaller daily EMAs or the 20-day EMA. The weekly NineEMA starting to climb makes it extremely unlikely that prices will visit the 20-week EMA within the foreseeable future.
Resistance Stacks Between $440 and $501 While Bulls Guard $377
Sellers have built strong defenses between the weekly highs at $439.19 and the psychological $450 mark. The monthly R1 pivot at $501.77 is the next significant obstacle with December 2023’s highs and round-number resistance. These levels turned into tough resistance points on Monero’s new technical break outlook being widely distributed for both profit-takers and new shorts.
The support architecture is constructured from a confluence of key factors, with the $377 zone standing out as the bulls’ red line in the sand to hold. This level contains the 50-day EMA at $377.39, the weekly S1 pivot at $377.01, and marks the recent early-December consolidation breakout. Beneath that, the $352-354 zone provides secondary support, with the 100-day EMA and the monthly S1 pivot confluencing at $343.07.
The market structure indicates that buyer dominance will persist as long as XMR continues to close above $377 on a retracement. The confluence of support and resistance levels results in a range that will likely lead to an uptrend resumption upon a breakout. Combined with the growing demand for privacy coins due to new applications such as private exchanges and ongoing worries regarding fiscal monitoring, the fundamentals are in sync with the charts.
Bulls Need Daily Close Above $440 to Confirm Next Leg Higher
Buyers are in control of the market structure, defending set higher lows and higher highs on the daily timeframe. Bulls look to continue pressuring resistance at $439.19. This level was established as a local top on October 24 with a violent bearish reaction and will likely serve as a strong psychological point. A daily close above this level would effectively clear the weekly high and take out previous resistance.
If the price action becomes even louder, the technical picture would quickly deteriorate on the daily chart. First, H&S and double-top followers would jump all over a drop below the 100-day EMA, $350, and next, the secondary breakout trend line. Note: As of Saturday’s close, the secondary trend line on the macro triangle wasn’t hit until closer to $330, and it hasn’t had a daily close below that indicator since reclaiming it on the June 16 breakout.
With the balanced momentum readings and defined support-resistance framework, the most probable near-term path is XMR will consolidate between $377-440 and digest recent gains. The ADX needs to get back above 25 to confirm the next trending move is may whether be higher or lower. In the meantime, expect range-bound action with an upward bias as privacy demand continues to outweigh regulatory concerns.
