Dogecoin Darts Through Critical Support as ETF Filing Sparks Institutional Interest
Market Pulse
- The drop in December longs was so severe.
- It was a 20.5% monthly loss, their worst month since March.
- More importantly, it erased three months of gains.
eternal futures on the best fee.
The price of Dogecoin (DOGE) has lost 20.5% month-to-date and roughly $0.037 since the last daily close, trading at $0.142. The recent downside were 41.3% of the value from DOGE over the previous three months. This was despite a boost yesterday following the news that 21Shares had filed to start a spot Dogecoin ETF. Perhaps this was a sign of peak pessimism. Or perhaps, as a rising number of commentators noted, the DOGE price is being targeted by some large players ahead of a much larger-than-expected rally. The question, then, for traders, is whether the convergence of whale accumulation, ETF hype, and technically oversold conditions will trigger a significant rally from this current crossroads.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | DOGECOIN (DOGE) |
| Current Price | $0.14 |
| Weekly Performance | -2.87% |
| Monthly Performance | -20.47% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 41.5 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 41.4 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.01 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -70.56 |
RSI at 41.5 Signals First Oversold Territory Since Summer Washout
With the oscillator also cooling to 25.6, the most oversold since September’s launch before October’s 100% surge, the liquid side of the market likely depleted. These extreme readings mirror those seen before May and July’s 46% and 57% recoveries. The combination of sidelined sellers and bankers and fading sales pressures building beneath the surface, the prospects of an explosive dead cat bounce are rapidly heightening. Buyers in these conditions often face immediate mark-to-default paper losses before – presuming buyers remain solvent – sellers capitulate. Given costs of leverage squeeze and/or funding extreme rates are spiking meanwhile, such selling is increasingly feasible as we saw in virtually every leveraged corner of the macro space last week and if widespread could facilitate a price spiraling.
Therefore, with all remaining one-year holders now underwater, you’ve removed the most basic and earliest sell cohort. Now any upside could “force” recent sellers back in for break-even loading up, with a subsequent move driving both further FOMO and exchange whale re-accumulation. This below 50 RSI unlikelihood drops further with Layer-2 coming imminently. This may lead to some sales as well, but the resultant network effect should more than compensate – often.
ADX Climbs to 41.39 – Mature Downtrend Nearing Exhaustion Point
The Daily, Meyer Multiples & MVRV suggest the largest pump may be over… Potentially trapping new money on its way in. The daily is showing the highest multiples since 2017. The 90-May ’20 weekly worked perfectly as well. You really can’t expect the same multiplier 2 yrs in the making to do the same magic today. pic.twitter.com/kEbehDZH7Q.
In simple terms, although the ADX shows that bears have been in control, such high levels are not typical over the longer term. When this information is combined with the falling wedge pattern, which has the potential to trigger significant moves when preceded by low volatility and accompanied by extreme ADX readings, we have a very good set-up. As with all leveraged ETFs, day traders will want to exercise caution, as the increased volatility associated with a coming reversal in trend could lead to losses.
20-Day EMA at $0.149 Becomes First Resistance After Support Breakdown
The daily RSI is the most oversold since Black Thursday in March and the MACD continues to print the lowest levels since April. The same signal occurred in late March where the 100-day EMA closed for 10 days in a row beneath the lower Bollinger Band, likely offering bears their final window to exit their positions below $0.002. This provides a final level of support at $0.139- for the 100-day EMA simply lifts above this level tomorrow.
From a step back at the bigger moving average picture and we see the bulls facing a stacked resistance zone from $0.144 to $0.166 as the 20-EMA, 50-EMA, and key psychological level of $0.15 all gather here. The 200-day EMA resides further up at $0.198 and this is the line in the sand between bear market and recovery. It is noteworthy that news of DOGE being approved for tax payments in Buenos Aires is coming in at the same time as price is testing these levels, with real-world use case meeting oversold at a critical moving average confluence.
Support at $0.132 Holds Despite Three Violent Tests This Month
Bullish investors are protecting an important support area ranging from the low of $0.132 in December to the psychological level of $0.14, where buyers showed up three times in the liquidation of this month. Meanwhile, the level of $0.132 has been highlighted as the monthly low and a high-volume node of the smart money in the summer accumulation phase – the place where professional traders accumulated their positions before the autumn rally.
Strong sellers seem to have capped the price at the resistance of $0.156 (monthly pivot), $0.179 (November’s breakdown point), and the $0.20 level.
Looking at the downside, the support architecture is located below, with multiple safety nets. The next major floor after $0.132 is the yearly low at $0.10, but that would require catastrophic deleveraging to reach. Both the monthly support levels at $0.1002 and $0.0986 represent doomsday scenarios, but they haven’t seen the light of day since 2022’s bear market.
Importantly, the price will likely continue the cycle higher into the end of the week, making a run at the $0.229 level. A push through supply above that high is almost certain to visit range highs near $0.345-Denominated in sats, upsloping parallels with a quad bottom cluster at 22 make for an MC Hammer setup scenario. Tangentially, it has experienced a technical breakout of the macro 461-day downtrend.
Bulls Need Daily Close Above $0.149 to Confirm Reversal Pattern
If the price is able to go back above the 20-day EMA, reaching $0.149, and this increase is supported by a daily closing above this level, we could expect that the breakout from the falling wedge will bring the price to $0.168-$0.172, a range that we obtained by measuring the wedge’s size.
The situation would become even more dire in the unlikely event that DOGE falls back into its former range, which would potentially evolve into a wide $0.76-0.10 zone of death with potentially devastating consequences for the committed holdler conviction.
Considering the oversold RSI, extreme ADX readings, major support defense, whale accumulation, and institutional ETF interest reaching maximum pessimism, the highest probability near-term path has DOGE consolidating between $0.132-$0.156 before testing a falling wedge breakout. The important tells are still the same: defend $0.132, retake $0.149, and target $0.168.
