Solana Darts Through $132 as Western Union Partnership Sparks Institutional Interest
Market Structure Shifts Higher
- The SOL price convincingly recovered the psychological $130 level after the February 24 low tested the December low at $121.77.
- According to a related announcement report to adopt the Solana blockchain as an anchor for the USDCoin stablecoin, the positive news event provided the liquidity to push the SOL market price above the previous week’s highs.
- The rise above both the declining 10 and 50-day moving averages also motivated institutional accumulation and short-covering.
This has set up SOL to hopefully continue higher by the momentum indicators being reset from overbought territory on the daily chart as long as the bulls defend $132.23.
Solana started recovering this week and jumped from the low of $121.77 in December. This helped it to cross an important level, i.e. $132. Also, Western Union announced that they plan to launch their USD stablecoin on the network by 2026. This news seems to have provided the propulsion to institutional sales. However, this move was a sharp reversal from the previous week’s 15% decline. Although SOL is down 36% in the past three months, the big question for traders is – will the bulls be able to push the price above the 50-day EMA, which has recently been reclaimed? The 50-day EMA is currently at $143.90. This will confirm that a bottom has been made.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | SOLANA (SOL) |
| Current Price | $132.12 |
| Weekly Performance | -2.85% |
| Monthly Performance | -14.85% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 41.4 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 34.3 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -5.87 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -57.66 |
RSI at 41.36 Signals Exit From Oversold – First Recovery Signal Since November
With this in mind, a near-term rally toward 100-DMA at 112.00 can’t be ruled out, especially if Bitcoin maintains a solid bid tone. Overall, regaining the 20-DMA resistance around 89.84 is fundamental for (shorter-term) bulls, while any further weakness would probably aim for the 70.00 psychological mark. Buyers defending that zone is crucial to avoid another test of the 2022 lows.
Therefore, I like the WU long through $128.50 to play for continuation; and I like the long if holding above Friday’s low to play for higher lows and trendline break. My personal worst-case stop-down mentality would make an ideal stop somewhere below the $124.90 area against any long tier entry, but digging in the chart there are reasons we might not even go under the $126.25 supportive zone on any dip.
ADX Climbs to 34.34 – Trend Followers Gain Edge After December’s Chop
With the ADX at 34.34, the trend is becoming pretty powerful following December’s sideways action which left readings below 25. This simply means that we are above the level where those looking to capitalize on range trading got burned and into the level where trend-following traders do well. Moving from ADX readings in the low 20s to above the 30 level is usually part and parcel of Solana moving from the accumulation to markup stages. In other words, the ADX is showing that trend or no trend, the market is trending. As a result, intraday traders will want to shift from mean reversion strategies to momentum shifting plans instead, especially since the technical uptrend is supported by Western Union’s fundamental commitment to its infrastructure.
50-Day EMA at $143.90 Becomes Next Hurdle After Price Reclaims Short-Term Averages
When considering all the EMA levels and parameters; given the buy divergence highlighted on the RSI and the deeply oversold stochastic serves to suggest the first swing high should be a higher low of some form, therefore ideally retesting the $145-$150 range to form the correct technical base. If this does not occur, and the buyback loses momentum around $140 with price dropping back into the current range, a renewed capitulation warning likely will be triggered. The 200-day EMA stabilized price on more than one occasion in 2018, first serving as a launching pad for bulls as they scrambled to keep above it while establishing support in March. A steep dive followed on large volume in April once the 200-day EMA gave way as bulls accepted their fate. This drop was finally arrested about $18 beneath the EMA.
Resistance Clusters Between $143-$155 While Support Builds From Recent Lows
There is strong resistance in the short term between the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at $143.90 and the psychological $150 level, which is where the December drop down started. If the price goes up from there, the 100-day EMA at $154.59 combined with the horizontal resistance from November’s trading range will make it very difficult to get through this level. Based on the multi-year time frame of Western Union’s commitment, we would expect that they are not going to exhaust all efforts to break through this level right now but rather accumulate longs and drive the price higher over the coming months and years.
After increasing with impressive momentum over the past month, daily RSI has worked off overbought conditions, while price held the rising 5DMA ($128.86) thus far this week. Bulls want to see that MA recover and Friday’s high taken out as that would likely signal a test of $132-$134 where sellers regained control following MicroStrategy’s latest equity offering. A move through that area and the 50-day EMA would shift risk back to the upside with resistance at $140, $149-$150 and $158.
Importantly, buyers are poised to drive the short-term momentum if they hold $132 on any pullbacks. This is noteworthy as the bulls have managed to recapture the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, after losing them for over a month. Western Union recently announced plans to leverage the Solana blockchain for its stablecoin launch in 2026. A similar structure was seen in the month-long consolidation phase of late October and early November before the altcoin rallied to $170.
Bulls Require Close Above $143.90 to Confirm Trend Reversal
If the price recovers and remains above the 50-day EMA at $143.90 after a daily close, it would signal a trend reversal, with bulls having first objectives at $150 as a key resistance level, and then the 100-day EMA at $154.59. The fundamental trigger for maintaining a breakout attempt is the Western Union collaboration, yet traders must be careful with taking profits at psychologically significant levels as some investors are still in a 36% loss position.
If the $110–$100 range doesn’t hold, panic selling could push Solana back to $95 or $90.
Taking into account the technical setup coupled with the infrastructure investment from Western Union, the most likely short-term scenario has SOL ranging bound between $132-$143. Bulls likely need to gather confidence after the 45% selloff from November’s highs which translates to a period of base-building between important moving averages before any potential $150+ retest.
