Ethereum Tests Critical Support at $2,841 as ADX Signals Trend Strength Building
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- BNB plunged from $1,095 to $832 in a devastating monthly correction
- CZ’s advice to “sell at market greed peak” preceded the sharp reversal
- Critical support at $800 faces its first real test since September
Binance Coin has shed nearly $263 from its monthly high, erasing a quarter of its value in what’s becoming a textbook example of why timing matters in crypto markets. The coin’s -23.6% monthly performance marks its steepest correction since the summer washout, with price action now testing the psychological $800 level that has anchored support for three months. The main question for traders is: will this level hold as it did in September, or are we witnessing the start of a deeper retracement toward the $600s?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | ETHEREUM (ETH) |
| Current Price | $2841.04 |
| Weekly Performance | 1.39% |
| Monthly Performance | -26.19% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 34.5 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 42.6 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -158.47 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -71.87 |
RSI Drops to 48.17 – First Neutral Reading After Extended Overbought Run
RSI sits at 48.17 on the daily timeframe, marking a dramatic shift from the overbought extremes that persisted through early December. This reset brings the oscillator back to neutral territory for the first time since the rally kicked off in November, essentially wiping the slate clean for directional bias. The last time BNB’s RSI touched these levels after an extended overbought period was in late September – and that setup preceded a 35% surge over the following six weeks.
What’s revealing is how quickly momentum collapsed once CZ’s market warning hit the wires. The oscillator plunged from above 70 to current levels in just over a week, matching the velocity of the August capitulation but without breaching oversold territory. So for swing traders, this balanced RSI means the market hasn’t reached panic levels yet – there’s room for further downside if $800 support fails, but also potential for a relief bounce if buyers step in here.
ADX at 35.08 Confirms Strong Trending Conditions Despite Direction Change
Looking at trend strength, the ADX reads 35.08, well above the 25 threshold that separates trending from choppy markets. This elevated reading tells us the current move has conviction behind it – whether that’s the recent downtrend or a potential reversal from these levels. The ADX climbed from the low 20s as the correction gained steam, confirming that this isn’t just random chop but a decisive shift in market structure.
Interestingly enough, the ADX remains elevated even as price approaches major support, suggesting volatility will persist regardless of direction. To clarify, we’re not in a low-volatility consolidation phase where range trading works best. Therefore, day traders should position for momentum continuation plays rather than mean reversion strategies – either a breakdown below $800 or a sharp reversal if support holds.
50-Day EMA at $806 Becomes Final Defense Line for Bulls
Price action through the EMA structure paints a clear picture of deteriorating technicals. BNB currently trades below both the 10-day ($872) and 20-day ($897) EMAs after slicing through them like a hot knife through butter. More critically, the 50-day EMA at $806 now sits just $26 below current price, transforming from a distant safety net into an immediate battlefield.
The speed of this EMA breakdown matches the August collapse, but with one key difference – the 50-day held as support back then and sparked a multi-week recovery. Bulls now guard this level desperately, knowing that a daily close below $806 would likely trigger stops down to the 100-day EMA near $680. That former resistance area around $800-806 now transforms into a red line for the bulls to hold, especially with the 200-day EMA still distant at $531.
Support at $800 Faces First Real Test Since Triple Bottom Formation
Above current price, sellers have stacked resistance between $906 (weekly pivot) and the psychological $1,000 level. The monthly pivot at $921 adds another layer to this resistance cluster, creating a formidable ceiling that would require significant momentum to breach. December’s highs near $1,095 now feel like a distant memory, sitting nearly $263 above current levels.
Bulls defend a more comprehensive support structure thanks to September’s triple bottom formation around $800. This level has rejected sellers three times since late summer, building a foundation that institutional players clearly respect. The weekly S1 at $746 provides a secondary floor if $800 fails, though losing that psychological round number would likely accelerate selling pressure.
Crucially, the price architecture shows buyer exhaustion after the extended rally from $520 to $1,095. The market needs either a solid bounce from $800 support or acceptance below it to establish the next directional move. With Kazakhstan’s National Bank planning cautious crypto investments and Sony Bank’s stablecoin plans for 2026 providing long-term fundamental support, the technical picture will likely determine short-term price action.
Bulls Need Convincing Reclaim Above $900 to Restore Confidence
Should price reclaim the 20-day EMA at $897 with authority, bulls could target a recovery toward the monthly pivot at $921. A daily close above this level would shift momentum back to neutral and open the door for a retest of $1,000, provided the broader market cooperates. The dYdX liquidation rebates program and general DeFi momentum could provide the narrative support for such a move.
The bearish scenario triggers if BNB loses $800 support on volume – a development that would trap recent buyers who entered during the December euphoria. This breakdown would target the 100-day EMA at $680 initially, with the potential for a full retracement to the $600-620 zone where the autumn rally began. CZ’s prescient warning about selling at peak greed would then transform from advice to prophecy.
Given the elevated ADX, neutral RSI, and price sitting directly on major support, the most probable near-term outcome is a volatile battle around the $800-832 range. This consolidation phase should resolve within days rather than weeks, with either a relief bounce toward $900 or a breakdown toward $680 depending on whether bulls can defend their final support line.
