Kaspa Tests Critical Support as Whales Accumulate $35M Worth of KAS
Market Pulse
- KAS is hovering at $0.0565 as a potential double-bottom formation looms at $0.055
- An anonymous whale has accumulated $35 million worth of KAS as part of the support defense at $0.055
- The imminent DAGKnight upgrade and consensus proposal has the community buzzing and watching the chart
Kaspa is currently trading at $0.0565, attempting recovery after a painful 32.6% loss over the quarter saw 65% of yearly gains wiped out. A similar 36.9% drop over the month suggests a dismal short-term outlook, but recent institutional interest may provide some upside pressure. Short-term traders must decide if the $35 million of whale buying power will be enough to stop the bearish assault and pop the cherry at such low prices.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | KASPA (KAS) |
| Current Price | $0.06 |
| Weekly Performance | 48.25% |
| Monthly Performance | 5.26% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 61.3 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 31.3 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | 0.00 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | 102.91 |
RSI at 61.34 Signals Room Above Neutral Despite Recent Carnage
The daily RSI is parked just above oversold levels at 30, despite the stock crashing below several prior levels of support in a swift and powerful selloff. The existing bearish price and momentum trends certainly don’t inspire confidence in a quick and easy turnaround, but it further illustrates just how much the stock has been punished in a hurry. The 30-day moving average took a massive hit this week but we’ve leaned on it for support/resistance for the better part of the past three months.
What is interesting is its performance during the recent whale accumulation phase. As Bitcoin mining firms including several North American ones began accumulating Kadena (KAS) and whales bought $35 million worth of the token, the RSI oscillator maintained itself above 60. As mentioned, levels above 60 have typically been the precursor to bull runs and not more capitulation. Hence, for swing traders, this distribution-to-bullish RSI structure along with institutional accumulation could be an advantageous risk-reward situation, where the downside is low but the upside potential increases.
ADX at 31.25 Confirms Trending Conditions Favoring Directional Plays
The Trend strength is convincingly read at 31.25, indicating a transition from the choppy consolidation that plagued KAS through early winter. This ADX level indicates we’ve crossed the threshold from range-bound tedium into actual trending territory where directional bets have an edge over mean reversion strategies. The climbing ADX happened to coincide exactly with the news of Marathon Digital’s entry into Kaspa mining, implying institutional participation catalyzed the trend acceleration.
Analyzing the current trend dynamics, an ADX lift-off from the mid-20s demonstrates that the smart money barbelled before the DAGKnight update has begun to infuse more sizable price action with greater confidence. In short, ADX crossing 30+ with a massive upgrade to infrastructure just around the corner generally indicates that the beginning of a bigger trend is in session, not its end. As such, momentum players will want to jump on the dominant bus once KAS tips its hand and this zone is either recaptured by $0.06 or given up on $0.055.
20-Day EMA at $0.050 Becomes Final Defense Line for Bulls
The EMA 4-hourly shows the bearish inflection point already beginning to turn south once more, having eased fractionally into bullish territory to end 2021. If the EMA 20 can recapture the 200 average quickly, the likely fallout ceiling is 5%. EMA 50 stands ready as immediate support should the long-term 100 and 200 averages cap the rally. A 5% fall from current prices drops the dainty snowflake back into sub $0.050 territory with the top of the baleful void a candle close away at $0.042 – the blade that pierced us during the brutal hammering in mid-December.
The most notable observation is the compression between the 20-day and 50-day EMAs which are now less than 8% apart. This tightening band tends to lead to violent expansions either way and the ongoing multi-chain EVM bridge and VProgs architecture development can become the fundamentals for such a move. Former 50-day EMA resistance now turns into a crucial ceiling that bulls have to recapture to turn the intermediate term structure bullish.
Support Stacks at $0.055 While Resistance Clusters Near $0.062
Bulls are holding ground at the $0.055-$0.057 area, which coincides with the weekly pivot middle ($0.055) and psychological round levels. Three interactions this week have shown strong demand at this level, with the last test seeing whales take $35 million worth of capital as price swept the lows. Below current levels, the monthly pivot S1 at $0.039 comes in as a near 31% drop, but the entire market structure would first have to collapse to push prices down.
Strong resistance is seen between $0.060 and $0.062, comprising the monthly pivot middle ($0.060) and the 100-day EMA, plus December’s breakdown point. Here, the weekly R1 at $0.074 lines up flawlessly with the 200-day EMA to create a double resistance wall that should limit any relief rally. The weekly range high at $0.095 is far removed and would need a 68% upswing to be reclaimed.
The structure of the market tells us where big investors are buying and selling assets without relying only on price data, even though it has been highly volatile. For instance, when the recent bottoms were being struck, trades increased by 45% compared to normal volume levels, a positive sign indicating that some players are placing bets at lower levels. This fits well with on-chain data showing coins redistributing from minnows to large holders. Typically, this stage is when weak hands are eliminated before the larger trend restarts, with events like the upcoming DAGKnight becoming market drivers.
Bulls Require Decisive Close Above $0.060 to Confirm Reversal
If KAS retakes the monthly pivot at $0.060 on a daily close, this would indicate that whale accumulation successfully absorbed the selling pressure. The measured move from there aims at $0.074, where the 200-day EMA meets weekly resistance – a 31% gain that would make up for December’s losses. And the DAGKnight upgrade timeline offers the fundamental catalyst that can maintain such a recovery.
If the price loses the $0.055 support,… well, bears took over. However, if they do it with conviction, especially on a volume spike that is more than double the daily average, they would spell big trouble. In this case, the aforementioned monthly S1 would be the target, and it is at $0.039 – 30% below the current price. This would likely also trigger the so-called “give up” from the final buyers. This could come into play if Bitcoin has a risk-off impulse or if regulatory noises return to the market.
Considering the bullish RSI divergence, institutional accumulation footprint and nearing network updates, the most likely trajectory has KAS ranging between $0.055-$0.062 before a breakout. Oversold monthly reads and new whale money also indicate little downside as bulls wait for the new mark-up cycle.
