Solana Darts Past $125 as Coinbase Integration Sparks Network Revival
Market Structure Shifts Higher
- The price of Solana’s native SOL token rebounded today after a particularly tough start to the week.
- After trading at its lowest level since January 24th, renewed stability in the broader crypto market, including Bitcoin’s bounce from the $38,000-support zone, fueled a strong rebound.
- Today’s price action mirrors Monday’s inverse pattern in the SOL/USDT exchange rate.
Solana rose by 9.4% this week, closing at $125.81 which ended a three-month losing streak with record losses of 38% from the all-time high. The recovery gathered steam when Coinbase revealed the takeover of a Solana-based trading platform called Vector.fun, indicating amplified SOL involvement from the exchange behemoth. The key debate for traders is whether the fundamental trigger can carry technical strength over after the relief rally or if the ceiling at former support will prevent the bounce back.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | SOLANA (SOL) |
| Current Price | $125.81 |
| Weekly Performance | -9.39% |
| Monthly Performance | -30.12% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 29.5 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 49.9 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -14.44 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -120.54 |
RSI at 39.29 Signals First Oversold Bounce Since Market Washout
The 30-minute RSI has entered overbought territory at 70 and a retrace to retest the highs at $4,050 is likely. Failure to break this level will see a retest of the March 17 breakout point at $4,020. A failure to hold this level would increase the likelihood of a revisit to $3,975. Volatility has eased slightly but remains elevated with an ATR of $53. Look for a sustained move above or below previous minor swing highs and lows.
What is interesting is the behavior of RSI in the recent drop, lower lows were observed while price was maintaining higher lows around $121, which forms a hidden bullish divergence that we often see before trend reversals. Hence, for a swing trader, this balanced-to-oversold RSI structure in combination with increasing wallet prints should assume that most of the sell-off is behind us. Resistance for momentum traders is next and closer to RSI 50 which would indicate the transition from bearish into a neutral bias.
ADX Climbs to 49.94 – Extreme Trend Strength Nearing Exhaustion
With a current reading of 49.94, the ADX tells us that the downtrend was especially strong, but is now approaching levels where prior reversals have occurred. Being in this zone above 40 indicates that the downtrend has become “old” enough that counter-trend bounces are becoming more likely. The Vector news came right as the ADX was peaking near 50, a level that has signaled very important bottoms in SOL’s past.
Importantly, such high ADX readings almost never last long-term without a pullback. What’s more, the ADX is suggesting that we are moving out of an over-extended downtrend and into a potential accumulation phase where range traders may have more favorable conditions than trend traders. As such, day trading fans will likely need to switch from shorting rallies to buying dips, particularly so when institutional interest through Coinbase can likely serve as a price support.
20-Day EMA at $148 Becomes First Major Resistance After Support Flip
The move into the previous resistance fails to transform into the expected support level with the heavy flush over the past 24 hours generating some immediate separation. SOL bears received a major boost from this price action, with the 20-week and 21-week EMAs at $123 and $115 flirting as the next likely areas for additional downside.
Digging deeper into the technical setup, the squish between the 50-day ($157) and 100-day ($169) EMAs forms a resistance cluster that conflates with the psychological $160 level. That previous support area around $157-160 now morphs into a line in the sand for bears to hold. The suggested disinflationary adjustments could also impact the extended-term supply picture and consequently serve as a tailwind for the market to recapture those levels should the story get some legs.
Resistance Stacks Between $137 and $180 While Support Builds at $121
The next resistance lies in the range between $137 (10-day EMA) and $148, where the 20-day EMA coincides with December’s breakdown level. Further above, sellers are seen at the monthly pivot of $159 coupled with the 50-day EMA – making it a strong hurdle that would warrant a strong buying spree to push through. Although the Coinbase news has pushed prices above the first resistance at $131, it’s the tough nut to crack.
Bullish investors are in control of KKR after a breakout above the early June high of $31.67, which is a positive development considering this level reversed the prior downtrend in April. The monthly R1 pivot at $32.74 is the next level to watch, with a breakout opening the door to the May peak at $33.88. Peeling back another layer, the monthly R2 pivot lines up with the June 3 fiscal Q4 earnings gap that was triggered by the upside surprise.
The market structure hints at increased buyer activity as long as SOL stays above $121 on any pullback. The growing wallet adoption and Coinbase’s long-term support for the Solana ecosystem underpin the technical levels. The cup-and-handle pattern forming above $121 indicates an approximate retest of $160 resistance should price action hold.
Bulls Need Daily Close Above $148 to Confirm Trend Reversal
To confirm this upward momentum, those in favor of the bulls must ensure that the price of the cryptocurrency climbs above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which is at $148. If successful, the next aim could be the $157-160 resistance range. Also, both the Coinbase account as well as the increased token disinflation, essentially the increased token burn, fosters the necessary underlying objectives to hold the upward trend.
If the price fails to stay above $131 (monthly S1) and this is especially the case as the price continues its upward trajectory on reduced volume, then the bearish scenario could prevail. This would consolidate recent bottom-feeding investors and likely swing to $114 before reaching the following significant maintenance level at monthly S2. Following the failure of the Coinbase message to take control, vendors could get back on top.
It is likely that Solana will consolidate between $125-137 in the near term as the recent oversold bounce from multi-month support combined with significant fundamental catalyst is still being digested. Before risking a break below this week’s low of $120 flat, more consolidation makes sense. Post-Coinbase catalyst, the focus shifts to the upside where the first real challenge lies at $148 as per the June low. The $150 area is a multi-month range high.
