XLM Tests 50-Day EMA Support After Wirex Partnership Fuels Brief Recovery
Market Structure Shifts Higher
- After reaching $0.235, XLM is rebounding.
- The Wirex-Stellar integration with Visa brings the total to 7 million users.
- Although the price is stable below important resistance levels, smart contracts are very active with the highest level in 5 years.
Stellar’s XLM saw a relief rally from the monthly bottom around $0.235 and recovered to $0.250 after the Wirex collaboration news brought in new hope in a market that was suffering for weeks on end. The dual-stablecoin Visa litigation update offered bulls a reason to push back and protect key long-term support zones, but the token still trades 36 % lower since three months ago. The crucial aspect for investors here is to determine whether the news-based surge would result in a new uptrend, or if the bears will cap their gains at tough resistance levels.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | STELLAR (XLM) |
| Current Price | $0.25 |
| Weekly Performance | -9.86% |
| Monthly Performance | -22.70% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 35.7 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 46.6 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.02 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -111.40 |
RSI at 42.8 Signals Room for Recovery After Near-Oversold Dip
The current bullish divergence supports a breakout of this range within the coming weeks, with the Wirex/W-pay launch acting as a strong potential catalyst. Daily Bollinger Bands are in the tightest squeeze since August, indicating a substantial expansion in volatility is imminent and coinciding with the increasing raw volatility indicator (yellow line). The oscillator has normalized, as usually seen after periods of high volatility.
Therefore, momentum swing traders can buy high with a stop-loss order under the lows of the previous week and wait for a strong daily close above declining trendline resistance to confirm the breakout entry. A high-volume downside gap would destroy the pivot quickly and expose a plunge to 42.00.
ADX at 46.58 Shows Mature Downtrend Losing Steam
The trend strength indicators are flashing mean-reversion exhaustion, with the 14-day ADX at 45, the 22-day at 63, and the 50-day ADX at 75. Looking back at history, whenever the 14-day ADX crossed 30 to the downside and dipped below 50 it preceded a turnaround in price to the upside. It was the same story with the 50-day ADX. From a technical standpoint, downside risk seems to be shrinking as sellers are exiting the market.
Hence, day traders have to adapt their tactics to a possible change of trending dynamics for flatter, more volatile price action. When ADX peaks above 40, then rolls over, it often signals a sharp shift in directional bias—a turn bullish longs sorely need after the 36 % walloping. Luckily, the upcoming microeconomic drive could be forceful enough to render the technicals valid again.
50-Day EMA at $0.247 Becomes Critical Bull Defense Line
The EMA(50) moving average at $0.2478 enchases the immediate resistance. The higher low pattern is in grave danger of collapsing given that $0.2428 support was cracked. Should the lowest low price is unbroken, this would occur. The next barrier is $0.2367 protected by the double-top low of $0.2300. A turnaround higher will have the March $0.2548 high as the initial resistance. The second resistance zone is between $0.2636 and the $0.2685 low point within the tilted price band.
The 100-day EMA will also be used to gauge the signals given by the higher timeframes should the 50-day fail to hold. If bears find the momentum to break that level, they will undoubtedly break it as they’ve been the prevailing force for VET since reaching its all-time high in the summer. The price action was trending above the 100-day EMA similarly this time last month just before that resistance was steadily lost.
Resistance Stacks Between $0.285 and $0.356 as Bulls Eye Recovery
There are several resistance levels above the current price, which all correspond to the monthly pivot points. The first one is at $0.285, where the weekly pivot point intersects recent consolidation highs. The second one is the monthly R1 at $0.356, which is the December high that began the current downtrend. While THORWallet’s cross-chain swap integration and increasing smart contract usage are positive drivers, price action requires a significant increase in trading volume to break through these resistance levels.
Bulls are defending a sturdier support system following the Wirex news pop. The $0.235 low retested thrice this month held, with monthly S1 ($0.178) as added support. A 5-year breakout in smart contract activity indicates solid fundamentals brewing under price, thus bulls have cause to defend these levels with gusto.
The market structure indicates buyer dominance as long as XLM remains above the 50-day EMA at $0.247. The setup looks like a double bottom around $0.235, which confirms a measured move to $0.295. Tokenization tailwinds and cross-chain tailwinds indicate that the technical setup lines up with the fundamentals for the first time in months.
Bulls Need Decisive Close Above $0.285 to Confirm Trend Reversal
If XLM can secure a daily close above $0.285 on solid volume, it clears the way to test the $0.356 level, which marks the starting point of December’s selloff. The various projects within the Stellar ecosystem, ranging from real-world asset tokenization to carbon-neutral initiatives, should serve as sufficient drivers to maintain a relief rally. Bulls will need to capitalize on present oversold levels to turn the corner.
If the bearish situation plays out draws in the 50-day EMA at $0.247 on increased selling pressure, the recent dip demand spurred by the Wirex news is caught on the wrong side of the trade. A breach of $0.235, in turn, brings the monthly S1 into focus at $0.178, wherein losses would recoup virtually the entire letup from the headline. It reflects a situation when not even the news could alter the bearish sentiment.
Based on the exhaustion signals and the fundamental momentum via partnerships and smart contracts, the most likely course is for XLM to consolidate in the $0.235-$0.285 area and build up some energy for its next move. Overbought and oversold bounces off solid ecosystem growth tend to be where one wants to patiently accumulate, rather than be aggressive in either direction.
