CRO Plunges 22.8% Monthly Despite Trump Media Deal – Technical Structure Deteriorates
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- CRO tumbled 22.8% over the past month, erasing November gains despite Trump partnership news
- Technical indicators flash oversold across multiple timeframes as price tests critical support
- Sellers dominate with ADX climbing above 37, signaling strong directional conviction
Cronos (CRO) has experienced a devastating drop of 22.8% over the past month, currently trading at $0.1139 despite the buzz surrounding its integration into Trump Media’s prediction market venture on Truth Social. The partnership announcement initially sparked an 11.5% surge, but sellers quickly overwhelmed any buying enthusiasm, pushing price down to test the psychological $0.11 level. The main question for traders is: can this heavily oversold bounce find legs, or will the bearish momentum continue toward the next major support at $0.0835?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | CRONOS (CRO) |
| Current Price | $0.11 |
| Weekly Performance | -9.08% |
| Monthly Performance | -22.81% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 32.6 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 37.3 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.01 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -112.94 |
RSI Hits 32.6 – Matching Levels Last Seen Before August Rally
Reading the oscillator at 32.6 on the daily timeframe, traders see momentum approaching capitulation territory that historically marked significant bottoms. This oversold reading matches conditions from August’s washout, which preceded a 40% recovery rally over the following six weeks. Interestingly, the weekly RSI at 42.8 still holds above the critical 40 level, suggesting the longer-term structure hasn’t completely broken down yet.
What’s revealing is how RSI behaved during the Trump Media announcement – it barely budged despite the initial 11.5% price spike, foreshadowing the lack of genuine buying conviction. So for swing traders, this deeply oversold daily RSI combined with weekly support creates a potential bounce setup, but any relief rally needs to push RSI back above 40 quickly to avoid further deterioration. The Smarturn EVM upgrade news provides a fundamental catalyst, but technical momentum must confirm.
ADX at 37.3 Confirms Sellers Control the Trend
Momentum exhaustion shows up at 37.3 on the ADX, indicating we’ve shifted from December’s choppy consolidation into a clear downtrend with conviction. Basically, when ADX climbs above 25 and approaches 40, it signals that one side has taken control – and right now, that’s decidedly the bears. The trend strength reading hasn’t been this high since the November sell-off that took CRO from $0.16 to current levels.
To clarify, the ADX is indicating that range-trading strategies should be shelved in favor of trend-following approaches. Day traders need to respect the prevailing downward momentum rather than trying to catch falling knives. The BlockDAG analysis highlighting Cronos market volatility proved prescient, as this ADX surge confirms we’re in a trending environment where countertrend positions carry elevated risk until momentum exhausts below 25.
20-Day EMA at $0.130 Now Acts as Dynamic Resistance
Price trades below the whole EMA ribbon, with CRO getting rejected at the 10-day ($0.122) and unable to even test the 20-day EMA at $0.130. The 50-day EMA sits much higher at $0.151, representing a 32% climb from current levels – illustrating just how far price has fallen. Most telling is how the 10-day EMA flipped from support to resistance after the Trump Media rally failed to sustain.
Similar to September’s setup, this complete breakdown of moving average support typically requires a multi-week base-building phase before any sustainable recovery. The technical structure won’t improve until CRO can reclaim and hold above at least the 20-day EMA. IBM’s enterprise custody platform news and growing institutional adoption provide long-term tailwinds, but near-term price action must respect these overhead resistance levels that rejected advances twice this week.
Support at $0.0835 Becomes Critical After $0.111 Falls
Resistance clusters between the psychological $0.12 level and the 10-day EMA at $0.122, where sellers defended aggressively during yesterday’s relief bounce attempt. Above that, the 20-day EMA at $0.130 and the more significant 50-day at $0.151 create multiple resistance layers that would take sustained buying volume to overcome. The monthly pivot at $0.140 adds another barrier for any recovery attempt.
Bulls defend the immediate support at $0.111, which has provided bounces three times over the past week. Below that, the next major support sits at the June low of $0.0835 – a 26% drop from current levels. This level gains importance as it represents the lower boundary of the six-month trading range and coincides with the monthly S1 pivot.
The market structure signals sellers remain in control as long as CRO stays below the $0.130 resistance cluster. Each failed attempt to reclaim the 10-day EMA reinforces the bearish bias, while the support at $0.111 weakens with each test. Volume patterns show accumulation attempts near support, but follow-through remains absent.
Recovery Requires Decisive Close Above $0.130 to Shift Momentum
Bulls require a decisive close above the 20-day EMA at $0.130 with expanding volume to signal any meaningful trend reversal. Such a move would need to coincide with RSI climbing back above 40 and ADX starting to roll over from extreme levels. The upcoming Smarturn upgrade could provide the fundamental catalyst, but technical confirmation is essential.
The bearish scenario triggers if $0.111 support fails on volume, likely creating a liquidity cascade toward the $0.0835 level where June buyers would be completely underwater. This would trap recent dip-buyers who entered on the Trump Media news, potentially accelerating the decline through stop-loss triggers.
Given the deeply oversold daily RSI and strong support at $0.111, the most probable near-term path is a relief bounce toward the $0.122-$0.130 resistance zone, followed by another test of support. Without a catalyst stronger than partnership announcements, CRO likely continues grinding between $0.111 and $0.130 while building a base for the next directional move.
