Sui Plunges 33% in a Week as RSI Hits Oversold Territory Below 31
Market Structure Shifts Lower
- The Sui price was last quoted 24.1% lower at $1.775 as a broad crypto market sell-off escalated on Thursday.
- SushiSwap’s governance coin slipped for the ninth-straight session, bringing the recent decline to 50%.
- A daily RSI of 25.5 lurks around levels that have halted uptrends this year.
Sui’s recent decline from $2.72 to $1.79 amounted to a 33.4% crash over the course of one week, eliminated roughly $0.93 per token, and drove the altcoin into deeply oversold levels. The rout intensified following reports of related wallet extension weakness across multiple chains, including Sui, with net losses of tens of millions in liquidity at one point, stop-losses being triggered beneath the psychological $2.00 barrier. The key question facing traders is whether the $1.71 floor, which has been tested on six occasions since June, will continue to hold, or will oversold pressures increase toward the $1.50 danger zone?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Asset | SUI (SUI) |
| Current Price | $1.79 |
| Weekly Performance | -16.80% |
| Monthly Performance | -33.44% |
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 30.7 |
| ADX (Average Directional Index) | 55.2 |
| MACD (MACD Level) | -0.22 |
| CCI (Commodity Channel Index, 20-period) | -129.46 |
RSI at 30.74 Signals Extreme Seller Exhaustion – Matches August Capitulation
The RSI currently stands at 30.74 indicating the most oversold levels since the August marketwide flush which preceded a 45% relief rally. Exhaustion signals in September and November led to reflexive counter-trend bounces within 48-72 hours, however, those rallies came from higher RSI readings further implying less downside conviction this time.
What is particularly telling about the Relative Strength Index is how it fared during the panic selling driven by Boyadjiuan’s death. It cut straight through the usually supportive 40-45 RSI zone suggesting that it was indeed pure panic selling rather than healthy retracement. Consequently the shares now find themselves in a high-risk, high-reward scenario where a positive announcement of any sorts can drive the shares violently back to $2.00…however, with the RSI a super negative/bearish 35.53, the longer term weekly chart remains under considerable pressure.
ADX Climbs to 55.17 – Conviction Behind Downtrend Reaches Extreme Levels
When it comes to trend strength, the ADX reading of 55.17 is one of the most powerful directional moves in Sui’s trading history. This kind of trend conviction is only seen during capitulation phases or blow-off tops – in this instance, it’s obviously the former as sellers have overwhelmed every bounce attempt this week.
Simply put, a reading above 50 indicates that a strong downtrend is in place. Note that when prices fall, ADX will rise but historically not above 75-80. That’s not the case now. ADX has risen to a record high of 90 in the past week. As long as that holds, the downtrend hasn’t yet become exhausted. Price might bounce a bit, but the next spike lower will likely take ADX to 95-100.
Price Trapped Below Entire EMA Ribbon as 50-Day Flips to Resistance
The close was near the low for the week, on the highest weekly volume ever, which is bearish in nature. A very low volume re-test of the lows early in the week would not surprise. Resistance stands at $1.88, the gap fill at $1.90, $1.95, $2.06, $2.10, and then much more at $2.20.
What stands out most is how tightly packed the 100-day EMA at $1.90 is with current price at $1.79 – there’s only an 11-cent buffer before this larger support is tested. The 200-day EMA resides much further below at $1.36, making it the apple that sits below the tree and has yet to visit any bottoms since the October uptrend. In order to at minimum change a bearish advantage to the sidelines, the bulls need to recover the 20-day EMA on the daily timeframe at $2.13.
Support at $1.71 Faces Seventh Test as Bears Target $1.50 Psychological Level
The support zone between $1.71 to $1.74 has been quite strong, the price bounced six times since June, despite some recent security induced sell-off. This level has more weight as it also corresponds with the weekly pivot point thus acting as a confluence that invited buyers during each test- with each bounce weaker than the last.
There are multiple resistance levels above the current price where sellers have congregated. The monthly pivot is at $2.21, the 50-day EMA is at $2.28, and the breakdown point of $2.52, where December’s rally ran out of steam, all confluence to form a formidable resistance wall. But, it’s the monthly R1 at $2.86 that now looks a long way off if current levels prevail, with a 60% bounce needed to reach that target.
The market structure continues to favor bears while the price is kept below $2.13. Every unsuccessful 20-day EMA recovery has encouraged bears to push prices lower. If the current support gives way, the most probable next stop is the psychological level of $1.50. Although the accumulation is taking place at these levels, the pullbacks are seeing distribution.
Bears Target $1.50 if Support Breaks – Bulls Need Reclaim Above $2.13
Buyers need to push prices beyond the recent lower high around $2.16 to activate an uptick extended by the 20 four-hour exponential moving average at $2.17. If reached, more bullish crosscuts could lift the price towards the $2.20 cluster of peaks from end of August, however, the 100 four-hour exponential moving average could constrain additional bullish adjustments for sellers at $2.20.
If the price fails to hold above $1.71, it will lead to a bearish scenario. In this case, recent buyers at lower levels will be stuck, and the price could continue to decline to the psychologically important level of $1.50, where the 200-week moving average also lies. A daily closing price below $1.71 would indicate a breakdown and could push the price further down to $1.36.
Considering how oversold it is and given that the ADX has already hit historical highs, the most likely short-term scenario is a relief rally towards the abovementioned resistance levels, which will probably be followed by another retest of the support levels. The security FUD needs to subside, as well as the DEX volumes need to stop dropping this low for the prices to consolidate.
